Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in the GBA Based on PLUS–InVEST Models

Abstract

In the context of sustainable development and dual-carbon construction, in order to clarify the future changes in land use and carbon storage in the GBA, this study used the PLUS and InVEST models as well as Geoda software to simulate and predict the spatial development pattern of land use as well as the changes in carbon stocks in the GBA in 2030 under multiple scenarios. The results show that (1) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage decreased year by year. (2) In 2030, except for the EPS, the future carbon storage prediction values of the remaining scenarios are lower than those in 2020, especially the carbon storage prediction value under the EDS, which is the lowest at 8.65 × 108 t. (3) The spatial distribution of carbon storage in the GBA has significant spatial heterogeneity. The high-value areas of carbon storage are distributed in the east and west wings as well as southwest of the GBA, while the low-value areas are concentrated in the middle and east. The research results can provide a reasonable scientific basis for the territorial space resource planning of the GBA under the goal of “dual carbon”.

Comparison of the CASA and InVEST models’ effects for estimating spatiotemporal differences in carbon storage of green spaces in megacities

“…Combined with relevant studies 32 , the expansion of cities and the reduction of green space are the main reasons for the decline of green space carbon storage. In addition, climate effects such as global warming and urban heat island may lead to inter-annual changes in regional rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, and other climate factors, which in turn affect the seasonal growth and development of vegetation, resulting in inter-annual changes in carbon storage in green space 26 , 33 .…”

“…The InVEST model’s carbon storage module categorizes ecosystem carbon storage into four categories: aboveground carbon storage, underground carbon storage, soil organic carbon storage, and dead organic matter carbon storage. According to land use classification, the average carbon density of four basic types of different land classes was calculated to obtain the total carbon storage in the study area 26 , 27 . The specific calculation formula is: where i is the average carbon density of the earth class, A i is the area of the earth class, and C toal is the total carbon storage of all land types (t·hm −2 ), C above is the aboveground carbon storage (t·hm −2 ), C below is the underground carbon storage (t·hm −2 ), C soil is the soil organic carbon storage (t·hm −2 ), C dead is the dead organic matter carbon storage (t·hm −2 ).…”

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land System Change in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area Based on a Cellular Automata–Markov Model

“…Accordingly, many policies were formulated to relieve these problems. Specifically, Guangdong province encouraged the reclamation of unsuitable land into farmland after 2011, with some vacated land used for industrial city construction in areas suitable for transformation [54,55]. Agricultural land received more attention, with farmland areas more effectively protected through the optimization of the structure of farmland [54,55].…”

“…Specifically, Guangdong province encouraged the reclamation of unsuitable land into farmland after 2011, with some vacated land used for industrial city construction in areas suitable for transformation [54,55]. Agricultural land received more attention, with farmland areas more effectively protected through the optimization of the structure of farmland [54,55]. Furthermore, the Guangdong provincial government issued the "Three Lines and One List for Environmental Zone Management Plan", requiring the strict implementation of an environmental protection red line, an environmental quality bottom line, resource utilization limitations, and an environmental access list [56,57], which promoted the maintenance of regional ecological stability.…”

Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land Use and Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province

“…The coupled InVEST-PLUS model was used in this study based on the advantages of the InVEST model and PLUS model, as well as the fact that they are both based on the raster data of land use, which can effectively link between land use and carbon storage. The coupled InVEST-PLUS model has been widely used-for example, scholars such as Li et al [8] and Wang et al [31] have used the PLUS-InVEST coupled model to analyze the evolution of land use and carbon storage in Kunming and GBA, respectively. However, studies on a provincial scale are sparse, which is not conducive to comprehensive integrated planning at the province level.…”