Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region

Abstract

Landscape change is a dynamic feature of landscape structure and function over time which is usually affected by natural and human factors. The evolution of rocky desertification is a typical landscape change that directly affects ecological environment governance and sustainable development. Guizhou is one of the most typical subtropical karst landform areas in the world. Its special karst rocky desertification phenomenon is an important factor affecting the ecological environment and limiting sustainable development. In this paper, remote sensing imagery and machine learning methods are utilized to model and analyze the spatiotemporal variation of rocky desertification in Guizhou. Based on an improved CA-Markov model, rocky desertification scenarios in the next 30 years are predicted, providing data support for exploration of the evolution rule of rocky desertification in subtropical karst areas and for effective management. The specific results are as follows: (1) Based on the dynamic degree, transfer matrix, evolution intensity, and speed, the temporal and spatial evolution of rocky desertification in Guizhou from 2001 to 2020 was analyzed. It was found that the proportion of no rocky desertification (NRD) areas increased from 48.86% to 63.53% over this period. Potential rocky desertification (PRD), light rocky desertification (LRD), middle rocky desertification (MRD), and severe rocky desertification (SRD) continued to improve, with the improvement showing an accelerating trend after 2010. (2) An improved CA-Markov model was used to predict the future rocky desertification scenario; compared to the traditional CA-Markov model, the Lee–Sallee index increased from 0.681 to 0.723, and figure of merit (FOM) increased from 0.459 to 0.530. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) From 2001 to 2020, the evolution speed of PRD was the fastest, while that of SRD was the slowest. Rocky desertification control should not only focus on areas with serious rocky desertification, but also prevent transformation from NRD to PRD. (2) Rocky desertification will continue to improve over the next 30 years. Possible deterioration areas are concentrated in high-altitude areas, such as the south of Bijie and the east of Liupanshui.

The Response of Rocky Desertification to the Development of Road Networks in Karst Ecologically Fragile Areas

“…From 2000 to 2017, the development degree of rocky desertification and changes in habitat quality in buffers at the same distance from the road networks were different under different development models in the same regions of the study area. On the spatial-temporal scale, the area of rocky desertification have increased in tourist areas with better economic development in the south of the study area, but the landscape with a relatively high level of habitat quality tended to be complete with no fragmentation and an inapparent degree of degradation under the influence of multiple roads [ 45 ]. This phenomenon of rocky desertification was due to the significant increase in the area and the significant aggravation degree in the study area from 2000 to 2005, which has gradually become an obstacle to the development of agriculture and forestry in Shilin County.…”

Spatiotemporal Variation in Ecosystem Health and Its Driving Factors in Guizhou Province

“…Conversely, the lowest values were distributed in the western and central parts of the province, characterized by limited forestland and a high degree of land use fragmen- Moreover, the vigor in the western regions (i.e., Bijie, Liupanshui, and Anshun) increased from low to high from 2010 to 2020. Historically, the ecological environment in these regions was extraordinarily fragile, especially with significant rocky desertification [101,102]. The destruction of the ecological environment due to economic development accelerated the degradation of ecological health.…”

Extraction of the bare rock rate in counties of typical karst areas based on unmanned aerial vehicle images and satellite data, China

“…Rocky desertification has become a major environmental issue that disturbs ecological construction and seriously restricts the development of the economy and society (Zhang et al, 2015). It is influenced by the combined circumstances of geology, geomorphology, soil, warm and wet climate conditions, vegetation, bare rock rate (BRR), and human overexploitation of natural resources (Bai et al, 2023; Gou et al, 2022; Guo et al, 2023; Qian et al, 2022; Wan et al, 2022; Xiong et al, 2022). The BRR is an important indicator for rocky desertification evaluation.…”