Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Human Critical Area (HCA) in the “Three Water Lines” Region of Northwest China and the Impact of Socioeconomic Factors between 2000 and 2020

Abstract

The Human Critical Area (HCA) is an area that characterizes the surface landscape created by human beings in the Anthropocene. Based on the signatures left by major human activities over the Earth′s surface, this research demarcates an arid inland region of Northwest China, the “Three Water Lines”, into four HCA types: Agricultural Area, Built-up Area, Ecological Area, and Bare Area. This paper explores the HCA′s distribution and changes in the “Three Water Lines” region between 2000 and 2020 with land use/cover data, as well as the impact of socioeconomic factors on the HCA dynamics with statistics sourcing from authoritative yearbooks. To achieve this, the Land Use Transition Matrix is used to investigate the changes in area and distribution, while binary linear regression and stepwise multiple linear regression are applied to examine the single and joint effects of the socioeconomic factors. The main findings are as follows: (i) The four HCA types are distinguished quantitatively and by their distribution patterns. Ecological Area and Bare Area cover most (more than 90% in total) of the territory with extensive and continuous distribution. Agricultural Area is mainly found on the eastern and western parts of the region, with flat terrain, abundant water resources, and moderate temperatures. Built-up Area is the most concentrated but has an unbalanced distribution and the lowest quantity. (ii) Despite some discernible spatial and quantity changes at regional and county levels between 2000 and 2020, the general characteristics in HCA’s structure and distribution pattern have mainly remained consistent. (iii) Transitions between HCA types occur constantly, and the primary source type of the transitions differs from one another. Ecological Area and Bare Area form the sources of the most evident transitions. (iv) Agricultural Area and Built-up Area are more prone influence from some socioeconomic dynamics. By contrast, there is no evidence that socioeconomic factors directly affect Bare Area. As the first empirical study of the newly conceived concept, Human Critical Area, this paper sheds light on the renovation of geographic traditions of studying the evolution of the human-environment system through the lens of human activities-driven landscape changes.