Spatiotemporal Distributions of Sheep and Goat Pox Disease Outbreaks in the Period 2013–2019 in Eastern Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Sheep and goat pox is highly contagious viral infection of sheep and goats caused by the genus Capripox virus. Clinically, the disease is characterized by fever, macules developing into papules, and necrotic lesions in the skin and nodular lesions in internal organs. In Ethiopia, there are seroprevalence epidemiological studies on the disease. However, the spatiotemporal clustering of sheep and goat pox incidence has not been investigated. A retrospective study design using the outbreak reported data from Kombolcha Regional Laboratory for the years from September 2013 to December 2019 was performed to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of sheep and goat pox outbreaks. A total of 663 sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks were reported in all major parts of Eastern Amhara region between 2013 and 2019. In this period, sheep and goat pox was reported in all administrative zones of Eastern Amhara region (n = 5). The average incidence of sheep and goat pox outbreaks at the district level was 8.61 per 7 years. The incidence differed between areas, being the lowest in hot dry month and highest in warm and cold moist months. Sheep and goat pox outbreaks generally have a peak in November followed by August and a low in May. There is a significant difference in the occurrence of sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks between months and years ( p < 0.001 ). The forecast for the period 2020–2026 revealed that a high number of sheep and goat pox disease outbreaks will occur than the previous one. Therefore, all stakeholders should work cooperatively to combat this disease occurrence, and there should be capacity development for participatory disease search, risk analysis, laboratory diagnosis, and information management in order to respond properly to outbreak of sheep and goat pox disease; thereby, it enhances the prevention and control the disease.

Transboundary Animal Diseases, an Overview of 17 Diseases with Potential for Global Spread and Serious Consequences

“…The virus is generally resistant to drying, survives freezing and thawing and remains viable for months [585]. Seasonality and environmental conditions affect spread with higher occurrence in warm and cold moist months [591,592]. The spread of disease into new areas is often associated with illegal animal movement and inadequate veterinary services [593].…”

Review of sheep and goat pox disease: current updates on epidemiology, diagnosis, prevention and control measures in Ethiopia

“…Recently, seroprevalence epidemiological studies have been performed on sheep and goat pox. However, the spatiotemporal clustering of SPP and GTP incidence rates has not been studied (Aregahagn et al 2021 ).…”

Spatio-temporal distribution and transmission dynamics of sheep pox and goat pox diseases in South Wollo zone north East Ethiopia

“…Fentie et al [ 14 ] has reported 15.5% overall sero prevalence of SP and GP in Western Amhara region in a mixed population of sheep and goats and 548 outbreaks with 22, 888 cases and 2477 deaths in the whole Amhara region [ 14 ]. An other study in Eastern Amhara region reported 663 SP and GP disease outbreaks with 16,825 cases and 1334 deaths [ 22 ]. Vaccination is available for the diseases but some districts are irregularly addressed and they fall under an outbreak.…”

“…Even if there are some reports on the sero prevalence and risk factors of SP and GP in selected areas of Afar region, Eastern Amhara region and Western Amahara region and molecular characterization of the viruses in central Ethiopia [ 14 , [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] ], the transmission parameters are still not estimated in areas with similar agroecology to the current outbreak areas. The spatial and temporal patterns of the SP and GP outbreaks in South Wollo zone are also not well studied in depth.…”