Spatiotemporal Distribution and Geospatial Diffusion Patterns of 2013 Dengue Outbreak in Jhapa District, Nepal

Abstract

This study describes spatiotemporal distribution and geospatial diffusion patterns of dengue outbreak of 2013 in Jhapa district, Nepal. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases were collected from the District Public Health Office, Government of Nepal. Choropleth mapping technique, Global Moran's Index, SaTScan, and standard deviational ellipse were used to map and quantify the outbreak dynamics. The results revealed heterogeneous distribution and globally autocorrelated patterns. Local clusters were observed in 3 major urban centers. The standard deviational ellipse demonstrated the outbreak occurred from the east and diffused to the west along the east-west highway in different weeks. The results of this study could be useful to public health authorities to plan and execute dengue control strategies.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Dengue and Chikungunya in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Systematic Review

“…In 2008 and 2009, DEN was expanded geographically to western, far-western, and central Nepal [ 59 ]. DEN outbreaks were continuously reported from 2006 onwards and spread to 32 districts located in the lowlands, hills, and highland regions of Nepal out of Nepal’s total 75 districts [ 19 , 23 ]. A large DEN outbreak was reported in 2019 from 68 districts of Nepal, with more than 10,000 reported cases and six deaths [ 15 ].…”

“…Figure 3 and Table 2 show the temporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH regionper year and month ( Tables S12 and S13 ), respectively. The DEN studies from India, Nepal, and Bhutan specified the monthly distribution of DEN incidence or the months when the DEN outbreak starts to occur and the peak month for the DEN outbreak [ 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 32 , 34 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 45 , 51 , 56 , 58 , 61 , 62 , 63 , 64 , 71 , 72 ] DEN cases in India start to occur in July [ 18 , 24 , 40 , 51 , 56 ]. However, DEN cases were reported from the month of June to December from Nepal [ 47 , 49 , 50 , 59 , 60 , 62 , 63 , 65 ].…”

“…We have calculated the total number of reported and confirmed DEN and CHIK cases from each HKH country, but we have certainly failed to report the true number of DEN and CHIK cases from each HKH country. More than one study was conducted in same period, especially in India [ 17 , 18 , 20 , 21 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 36 , 39 , 40 , 42 , 50 , 51 , 54 , 56 , 57 , 60 ] and in Nepal [ 19 , 22 , 23 , 30 , 34 , 37 , 38 , 41 , 43 , 44 , 47 , 49 , 53 , 55 , 58 , 59 , 61 , 64 , 66 , 67 , 69 ]. This might have duplicated the DEN or CHIK cases in our database.…”

“…Most of studies from India [18,24,40,51,56] and Nepal [19,23,29,32,41,43,61,64] show almost consistent seasonality of DEN outbreaks, lasting from June to December. The majority of the studies from India and Nepal reported maximum DEN cases in September, October, and November in the postmonsoon period [18][19][20][23][24][25][27][28][29][39][40][41][42][43]54,61,62]. Our findings concerning a seasonal distribution of DEN in HKH countries are similar to the studies on Brazil [91] and Thailand [92].…”

A dengue fever predicting model based on Baidu search index data and climate data in South China

“…However, the establishment of an early DF warning system that enhance the predictability of dengue outbreaks is still a key step in dengue control. Various countries, including Nepal[49] Thailand [50], Singapore [51], Indonesia [52–54], Venezuela [55], and Trinidad [56], have conducted numerous studies on DF, which reported that meteorological factors play a crucial role in dengue transmission by direct or indirect effects on mosquito vectors[57, 58]. The impact of climate on dengue fever is not immediate but accumulates over time.…”