Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901–2016

Ahmed, Kamal; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Wang, Xiaojun; Nawaz, Nadeem; Khan, Najeebullah

doi:10.5194/hess-23-3081-2019

Cited by 79 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 61 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…The findings from this present study corroborate the findings of few studies conducted in the nearby countries, such as [34,43,48,76] which showed a generally decreasing trend in the water storage and increasing aridity [81,82] in the Central Asia region. This emphasizes how important it is to conserve and improve water resources management in the region, particularly for Afghanistan where more populace would need the resource for irrigation purposes in the future as the population continues to grow and the climate continues to change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan

et al. 2019

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Water is gradually becoming scarce in Afghanistan like in many other regions of the globe. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial changes in the availability and sustainability of water resources in Afghanistan. The Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite obtained from three different institutes, having 1° × 1° spatial resolution for the period 2002–2016 was used for this purpose. Sen’s slope method was used to assess the rate of change, and the Modified Mann–Kendall test was used for the evaluation of the significance of trends in TWS. After, the concept of reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) was used for assessing the spatial distribution of sustainability in water resources. The results revealed a significant decrease in water availability in the country over the last 15 years. The decrease was found to be highest in the central region where most of the population of the country resides. The reliability in water resources was found high in the northeast Himalayan region and low in the southwest desert; resilience was found low in the central region, while vulnerability was found high in the south and the southeast. Overall, the water resources of the country were found most sustainable in the northeast and southwest and least in the south and the central parts. The maps of water resource sustainability and the changes in water availability produced in the present study can be used for long-term planning of water resources for adaptation to global changes. Besides, those can be used for the management of water resources in a sustainable and judicious manner.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan

et al. 2019

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“…MK tests are used widely in the environmental sciences, assisting in measurements and analyses of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed [68]; temperature and precipitation [66]; precipitation [69]; extreme temperatures [42,43,67,70]; hail [71][72][73][74]; aridity [17][18][19]32,75]; evapotranspiration [76]; and atmospheric deposition [77]. MK tests are simple, robust, and can cope with missing values.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Gavrilov

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

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In this study, aridity data and tree ring data were collected in Northern Serbia, in Southeast (SE) Banat, a subregion within Vojvodina, and Vojvodina at large. They were each investigated independently. The De Martonne Aridity Index and the Forestry Aridity Index are derived from examining the relationship between precipitation and surface air temperature data sets sourced from seven meteorological stations in SE Banat, and from 10 meteorological stations located in Vojvodina as a whole. Vojvodina is a large territory and used as the control area, for the period 1949–2017. The Palmer Drought Severity Index was derived for the period 1927–2016, for both SE Banat and the totality of Vojvodina. The results of the Tree Ring Width Index were obtained from samples collected in or around the villages of Vlajkovac and Šušara, both located in SE Banat, for the period 1927–2017. These tree ring records were compared with three previous aridity and drought indices, and the meteorological data on the surface air temperature and the precipitation, with the objective being to evaluate the response of tree growth to climate dynamics in the SE Banat subregion. It was noted that the significant positive temperature trends recorded in both areas were too insufficient to trigger any trends in aridity or the Tree Ring Width Index, as neither displayed any change. Instead, it appears that these climatic parameters only changed in response to the precipitation trend, which remained unchanged during the investigated period, rather than in response to the temperature trend. It appears that the forest vegetation in the investigated areas was not affected significantly by climate change in response to the dominant temperature increase.

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“…There are several trend assessments approaches available in the literature. However, the Mann-Kendall test is the most widely used test for assessing the trends in hydro-climatic studies [18,[52][53][54][55][56]. The Mann-Kendall test [57] which is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) often used as because it has several advantages: It does consider the data distribution, and it can cope with the outliers [58][59][60][61].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

Ali

Kuriqi

Abubaker³

et al. 2019

Water

197

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Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3/s and −17.37 m3/s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3/s and 16.37 m3/s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale, the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

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Spatiotemporal changes in aridity of Pakistan during 1901–2016

Cited by 79 publications

References 61 publications

Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan

Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan

Independent Aridity and Drought Pieces of Evidence Based on Meteorological Data and Tree Ring Data in Southeast Banat, Vojvodina, Serbia

Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

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