Spatiotemporal Assessment of COVID-19 Spread over Oman Using GIS Techniques

Abstract

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a worldwide challenge effecting millions of people in more than 210 countries, including the Sultanate of Oman (Oman). Spatiotemporal analysis was adopted to explore the spatial patterns of the spread of COVID-19 during the period from 29th April to 30th June 2020. Our assessment was made using five geospatial techniques within a Geographical Information System (GIS) context, including a weighted mean centre (WMC), standard deviational ellipses, Moran’s I autocorrelation coefficient, Getis-Ord General-G high/low clustering, and Getis-Ord $$G_{i}^{*}$$ G i ∗ statistic. The Moran’s I-/G- statistics proved that COVID-19 cases in datasets (numbers of cases) were clustered throughout the study period. The Moran’s I and Z scores were above the 2.25 threshold (a confidence level above 95%), ranging from 2274 cases on 29th April to 40,070 cases on 30th June 2020. The results of $$G_{i}^{*}$$ G i ∗ showed varying rates of infections, with a large spatial variability between the different wilayats (district). The epidemic situation in some wilayats, such as Mutrah, As-Seeb, and Bowsher in the Muscat Governorate, was more severe, with Z score higher than 5, and the current transmission still presents an increasing trend. This study indicated that the directional pattern of COVID-19 cases has moved from northeast to northwest and southwest, with the total impacted region increasing over time. Also, the results indicate that the rate of COVID-19 infections is higher in the most populated areas. The findings of this paper provide a solid basis for future study by investigating the most resolute hotspots in more detail and may help decision-makers identify targeted zones for alleviation plans.

Demographic and socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 across Oman - A geospatial modelling approach

“…A second reason may be related to the decision to prohibit movement in all the sultanate governorates from 9:00 p.m. to 5:00 A.M. from August 8 August 15, 2020. An earlier analysis showed that the geographical distribution of COVID-19 events in Oman varies greatly in time and space from one willayat to another (Al-Kindi et al, 2020).…”

“…The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Oman has varied considerably from one wilayat (district) to another, thereby posing further difficulties to monitoring the COVID-19 spreading in the country on a detailed spatial scale (Al-Kindi et al, 2020). Only few studies of COVID-19 spatial modelling have been carried out in Oman (Mansour et al, 2020), which demands further research focused on the socio-economic and environmental impact of the infection, which may have a significant effect on this pandemic as outlined by (Bashir et al, 2020).…”

Increasing risks for emerging infectious diseases within a rapidly changing High Asia

“…These programs need to not only focus on EIDs and zoonoses of current concern, but also engage in long-term strategic monitoring of endemic diseases within wildlife and domestic livestock to help understand how interactions among these pools may affect each other, and to help understand where new EIDs may arise. This needs to be accompanied by a systematic strengthening of health systems in these remote areas to ensure appropriate health care and well-being of local communities, which in turn, will indirectly provide wider benefits at the national and global levels by earlier detection and preparedness for EIDs and zoonoses (Daszak et al 2000;Al-Kindi 2020). Currently, most surveillance in many low-and middle-income countries occurs is in isolation, with limited data-sharing and lack of integrated responses during outbreaks (Chatterjee et al 2016).…”

Mathematical modelling of the second wave of COVID-19 infections using deterministic and stochastic SIDR models

“…Other factors, such as the identification of reinfections and the seasonal immunity, can also be associated with such an increase [ 15 , 25 , 33 , 53 ]. In the sense of understanding the burden caused by the spread of diseases, numerous studies in different fields of science have been conducted, among which we may mention especially the development and improvement of mathematical models [ 42 ], environmental studies [ 3 , 19 , 30 , 48 , 49 ] and geopolitical aspects [ 46 ].…”

“…Al-Kindi et al. [ 3 ] employed GIS techniques to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in the territory of Oman. Stoffel et al.…”