Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth and Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract. Cities around the world are facing tremendous pressure due to rapid urbanization. They are being extended haphazardly especially in developing countries, putting strain on already depleting natural recourses. The land-use conversion to built-up areas harms the urban environment significantly. The most immediate implications of this land-use/land cover (LULC) conversion are the transition of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the creation of Urban Heat Islands. This research investigates the spatial distribution of LST and LULC and their interrelation using satellite images from Landsat 5 (TM) and 8 (OLI/TRS) for the years 1998, 2010, and 2021. The built-up area in Lahore has grown enormously over the last two decades. Our results indicate that each year 1.26% of the land is being transformed into built-up area. Consequently, the prevailing urban development trends have also influenced the LST. In particular, we observed an average upsurge of 0.47°C per year between 1998 and 2021. If our cities continue to expanqd in the same manner, this would have serious ecological implications in the future. Thus, urban planners and policymakers need to incorporate climate-adaptive design at the community and building levels to improve the situation.

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