Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought variability in a homogeneous region using standardized drought indices

Niaz, Rizwan; Almazah, Mohammed M. A.; Al-Duais, Fuad S.; Iqbal, Nouman; Khan, Dost Muhammad; Hussain, Ijaz

doi:10.1080/19475705.2022.2079429

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Specifcally, some researchers monitored and modeled drought characteristics in their frameworks to enhance forecasting accuracy, which is useful for updated decisions and early warning policies [44,[80][81][82][83]. Terefore, modeling and monitoring of drought characteristics are crucial for early warning and decision-making [12,63,84,85]. Among the various drought characteristics of modeling, Meng et al [85] and Niaz et al [37] focused on the drought persistence modeling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Te process of SPI analysis involves transforming the rainfall data into a normal distribution using the gamma probability distribution [1]. Te SPI can also be calculated by using the marginal probability of precipitation formula instead of gamma distribution function [42,[63][64][65]. To extend this, the current research uses the formula that is proposed by [42] for standardizing the precipitation data.…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index Te Standardizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index Te Standardizedmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

Self Cite

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“…Also, the index of deviation from the average (EM) is seen as one of the most important ways to tell if there is too much or too little rain. If GIS is used, the performance of indicators becomes more efficient in terms of visualization (Niaz et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining the impacts of climate change on Spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological drought using SPI

Attou

Azouzi

Bouacha

2023

jengeo

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As an associated aspect of climate change, drought has become a severe challenge in different parts of the world, especially in regions where life depends on predominantly rain-fed agriculture. The Ain Defla study area is mostly agricultural land, most of its activity depends on rain. In recent years, droughts of varying impact and severity have affected crops. Therefore, this study aimed to identify and study the regions that are most vulnerable to drought in terms of time and space. Moreover, it provides a detailed picture of the drought in the region and finds appropriate solutions in the event of its return in the future. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the deviation from the average (EM) were calculated annually for 38 years for 13 stations from 1981 to 2019 within the study area. GIS was used to compile digital maps to visualize the spatial distribution of rainfall (P) and the difference in rainfall (EM) and determine the aridity using SPI values within the region based on the statistical method of Kriging. The Ain Defla region was subjected to drought of varying intensity and impact during the years (1983, 1989 and 2000), which extends with a decreasing value from east to west. Some wet years were also observed (2013 and 2018). Most years were in the moderate category by 60%. It is possible to rely on rain-fed agriculture in the western regions, that were less prone to drought during the study period compared to the eastern part, an area where drought is stable on an ongoing basis.

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“…Because of increase in dryness and declines in normal and wet occurrences, droughts typically have negative SPI values, and several drought indices have been employed to characterize and distinguish the pattern of rainfall change and drought conditions [19,20]. In some situations, droughts may continue for several years, resulting in total devastation of agriculture and water supplies of the concerned area [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological drought mitigation for combating climate change: a case study of southern Sindh, Pakistan

Kumar

Shah

Khokhar

et al. 2023

Mehran Univ. res. j. eng. technol.

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A meteorological drought study is performed using monthly time scale data from three separate locations in southern Sindh, Pakistan. Rainfall and temperature have been used to identify the drought. These data were transformed into drought indices known as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI), which were derived using (the Hargreaves equation). In this study, two indices are compared for three separate meteorological stations Chhor, Mithi, and Badin where most socioeconomic livelihoods depend heavily on water. The SPEI is produced through a simple water balance combining precipitation and temperature, in distinction to the SPI, it just considers precipitation. In conclusion, our study showed that both indices were capable of detecting droughts that fluctuated in time across the reference period of 2004–2021. SPI and SPEI's direction of change was similar, however the impact on the drought condition varied. SPEI discovered more droughts with longer durations and greater with 13 moderate droughts at SPEI-3 for Chhor and Badin Station while Mithi indicated 8 moderate droughts during 2004-2021 and SPI-3 indicated 4 moderates for Chhor, Mithi and Badin indicated 6 moderate drought. Conversely, SPEI discovered more moderate-level droughts than SPI, however they were of shorter length and less frequent occurrence than the severe to moderate droughts. The findings imply that drought characteristics are significantly influenced by temperature variability.

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Spatiotemporal analysis of meteorological drought variability in a homogeneous region using standardized drought indices

Cited by 10 publications

References 79 publications

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Determining the impacts of climate change on Spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological drought using SPI

Meteorological drought mitigation for combating climate change: a case study of southern Sindh, Pakistan

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