Spatio-temporal variations of land surface temperature and precipitation due to climate change in the Jhelum river basin, India

Abstract

The present study investigated the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation and temperature for the projected period (2011-2100) in the Jhelum basin, India. The precipitation and temperature variables are projected under RCP 8.5 scenario using statistical down scaling techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet Artificial Neural Network (WANN) models. Firstly, the screened predictors were downscaled to predictand using ANN and WANN models for all the study stations. On the basis of the performance criteria, the WANN model is selected as an efficient model for downscaling of precipitation and temperature. The future screened predictor data pertaining to RCP 8.5 of CanESM2 model were downscaled to monthly temperature and precipitation for future periods (2011-2100) using WANN models. The investigation of the future projections revealed an average increase of 17-25% in the mean annual precipitation and 20-25% average increase in the monthly mean precipitation for all the selected stations towards the end of 21st century. The monthly mean temperature also showed an increase of 2-3 °C for all the study stations towards the end of 21st century. The mean seasonal temperature of the projected period is found to be increasing for all the four seasons in most parts of the basin.