Spatio-temporal variations in COVID-19 in relation to the global climate distribution and fluctuations

Abstract

This study investigates the spatio-temporal variations in the occurrence of COVID-19 (confirmed cases and deaths) in relation to climate fluctuations in 61 countries scattered around the world from December 31, 2019 to May 28, 2020. Logarithm transformation of the count variable (COVID-19 cases) was used in a multiple linear regression model to predict the potential effects of weather variables on the prevalence of the disease. The study revealed strong associations (-0.510 ≤ r ≤ -0.967; 0.519 ≤ r ≤0.999) between climatic variables and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in majority (68.85%) of the selected countries. It showed evidences of 1 to 7-day delays in the response of the infection to changes in weather pattern. Model simulations suggested that a unit fall in temperature and humidity could increase (0.04 -18.70%) the infection in 19.67% and 16.39% of the countries respectively while a general reduction (-0.05 —9.40%) in infection cases was projected in 14.75% countries with a unit drop in precipitation. In conclusion, the study suggests that effective public health interventions are crucial contain the projected upsurge in COVID-19 cases during both cold and warm seasons in the southern and northern hemispheres.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spreading under the influence of environmental factors and strategies to tackle the pandemic: A systematic review

“…i.e., warm and cold ( Wang et al, 2021 ). Thus, positive and negative correlations have been observed for all environmental factors (temperature, humidity, and precipitation) ( Matthew et al, 2021 ; Sartorius et al, 2021 ; Qian Wang et al, 2021 ). It implies other crucial factors should also be considered, such as variations in socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare facilities, and other protocols (e.g., lockdown, wearing masks, social distancing, frequent washing of hands) to fight the pandemic ( Matthew et al, 2021 ).…”

“…In addition to the environmental conditions, very few studies focused on spatial-temporal variation and seasonal variation to understand the geographical evolution of COVID-19 ( Sartorius et al, 2021 ). For example, Matthew et al (2021) examined the influence of spatial-temporal variations on the COVID-19 cases concerning environmental factors fluctuations in 61 countries worldwide for an approximately five-month period (December, 2019−May, 2020). It was found that the spread of COVID-19 was highest in the high latitudes regions with a temperate climate, and the primary route of the transmission was mainly from the epicenter to North America and Europe, imitating the travel patterns from China ( Matthew et al, 2021 ).…”

“…For example, Matthew et al (2021) examined the influence of spatial-temporal variations on the COVID-19 cases concerning environmental factors fluctuations in 61 countries worldwide for an approximately five-month period (December, 2019−May, 2020). It was found that the spread of COVID-19 was highest in the high latitudes regions with a temperate climate, and the primary route of the transmission was mainly from the epicenter to North America and Europe, imitating the travel patterns from China ( Matthew et al, 2021 ). Furthermore, the influence of meteorological changes on the spread of COVID-19 varied across different climatic regions.…”

“…However, these models are silent in investigating the evolution of the virus in response to climatic variation; and assume that the infection rate is constant with a homogenous environment ( Merow & Urban, 2020 ). Environmental factors can influence the virus infection rate in two distinct ways: (1) From an epidemiological viewpoint, the spread of a virus depends on certain environmental conditions ( Matthew et al, 2021 ) (as discussed in section 3.1). (2) From a social behavior perspective, weather influences mobility patterns and social distancing, affecting the virus spread across various regions ( Sharif et al, 2021 ).…”

Correlation between the environmental parameters with outbreak pattern of COVID-19: A district level investigation based on yearlong period in India

“…Insufflating such air with prohibitive concentration of Particulate Matters (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CO) have been also inculpated for escalating the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and contributing to the mortality rate inclusively (Huang et al, 2018; Khaniabadi et al, 2017; Liu et al, 2018; Yang et al, 2020a). Recent studies have stated that both short-term and long-term exposure to different air pollutants including PM (PM 2.5 , PM 10 ), Sulphur di-Oxide (SO 2 ), CO, O 3 and NO 2 could contribute significantly to the higher rates of COVID-19 infections in different parts of the world (Ali and Islam, 2020; Bourdrel et al, 2021; Coker et al, 2020; Gujral and Sinha, 2021; Jain et al, 2021; Li et al, 2020; Lin et al, 2020; Ma et al, 2021; Matthew et al, 2021; Mele et al, 2021; Sharma et al, 2021; Suhaimi et al, 2020; Wu et al, 2020), therefore positively associated with the conveyance of COVID-19. O 3 is also a salient precursor of hydroxyl radical (OH), thus it also entices the concentration of SO 2 and CO (Logan et al, 1981; Thompson, 1992).…”