Spatio-temporal pattern and the evolution of the distributional dynamics of county-level agricultural economic resilience in China

Abstract

Because the complexity of the external environment has put great pressure on the agricultural economy, making it vulnerable, it is necessary to promote a system of resilience in the agricultural economy so that Chinese agriculture can continue to persevere in the face of serious external uncertainties. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution of the distributional dynamics of China’s county-level agricultural economic resilience based on 2000–2020 data covering 2,545 counties. The results are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the mean value of China’s county-level agricultural economic resilience showed an obvious upward trend, which indicates that China’s agricultural economy gradually increased its ability to resist risks and continued to develop in a favourable manner. Specifically, the county-level agricultural economic resilience index of the northeast region grew the most significantly, while the index of county units in the western region was relatively low. Second, the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of China’s agricultural economic resilience gradually migrated to the northwest, showing a dominant direction from northeast to southwest and a tendency to develop from southeast to northwest. Third, the spatial differences in China’s agricultural economic resilience generally showed an upward trend, while county-level differences were the main source of the overall differences, followed by inter-provincial differences, inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences. Additionally, the contribution of county-level differences to the overall differences fluctuated within the range of 54%-58%. Fourth, there is a possibility of localized convergence in China’s agricultural economic resilience, which is continuous in spatial effects and has obvious positively correlated spatial effects at different times and in different county spaces.