Spatio-temporal Mapping of Breast and Prostate Cancer in South Iran During 2014-2017

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Background: Breast and prostate cancers are the most common gender-specific malignancies. In developing countries, screening of all population at risk of cancers is impractical because of the healthcare resource limitations. Thus, determining the high-risk areas of Cancers might be an important step to conduct a screening program at high-risk areas. This study explores potential high-risk clusters in the incidence pattern of breast and prostate cancers in southern Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in the province of Kerman, South Iran. Patient data were aggregated at the county and district levels and the incidence rate per 100,000 people for both breast and prostate cancer were calculated. We used the natural break classification with five classes to produce descriptive maps. A spatial clustering analysis ( Anselin Local Moran’s <jats:italic>I</jats:italic> ) was used to identify potential clusters and outliers in the pattern of these cancers from 2014 to 2017. Results: The Age-Standardised Incidence Rate of breast cancer showed an increase from 29.93 to 32.27 cases per 100,000 people and prostate cancer from 13.93 to 15.47 cases per 100,000 during 2014–2017. Cluster analysis at the county level identified high-high clusters of breast cancer in the North-West of the province for all years, but the analysis at the district level showed high-high clusters for only two of the years. Furthermore, cluster analysis at the county and district levels of prostate cancer also identified high-high clusters in the North-West of the province for two years. Conclusions: North-West Kerman had a significantly higher incidence rate of both breast and prostate cancer. These findings may help to design tailored screening and surveillance systems. Furthermore, this study generates new hypotheses to test potential relationships between environmental risk factors and incidence of cancers in areas with higher cancer risk.</jats:p>