Spatio-temporal improvised explosive device monitoring: improving detection to minimise attacks

Comparative measures of aggregated uncertainty representations

“…Over the first decade of the 21st century, a major cause of casualties in both Iraq and Afghanistan combat zones has been from improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Prevention/avoidance of IED attacks is a critical decision and should be based on assessment of the most probable placements of IEDs (Benigni and Furrer 2012). One approach is to consider historical probability distributions characterizing typical placements sites.…”

A space–time analysis of the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary: a resource for analyzing the conflict-health nexus

“…Decisions have to be made with regards how to partition data in space and time for an analysis. For example, Benigni and Furrer [ 7 ] constrained their space time analysis of IEDs in Iraq to road segments, and to include a travel time variable from base to explosion as a distance measure, their decision in turn being influenced by the work of Lacroix et al [ 20 ] who found that 47 % of all ERWs were no further than 1 km from a road. The concept of time is also important when considering violent attacks [ 7 ], not only because these events diffuse in space and time, but because key dates, policy changes, and even outside influence (such as importing IED “expertise” from Iraq), can influence patterns [ 6 ].…”

“…For example, Benigni and Furrer [ 7 ] constrained their space time analysis of IEDs in Iraq to road segments, and to include a travel time variable from base to explosion as a distance measure, their decision in turn being influenced by the work of Lacroix et al [ 20 ] who found that 47 % of all ERWs were no further than 1 km from a road. The concept of time is also important when considering violent attacks [ 7 ], not only because these events diffuse in space and time, but because key dates, policy changes, and even outside influence (such as importing IED “expertise” from Iraq), can influence patterns [ 6 ]. When considering insurgent attacks in Iraq between 2004 and 2009, Medina et al [ 25 ] noted the importance of specific dates, but also found temporal sequences or patterns within the larger time column, such as an increased likelihood of a second attack within 8 weeks of the first [ 9 , 25 , 29 ].…”

“…There have been several spatially detailed studies of violence in Afghanistan and Iraq 1 [ 3 , 6 , 7 , 20 , 21 , 25 , 39 ], though of relevance to this paper, is how there has been a lack of a standard reference conflict data source. Lacroix et al [ 20 ] use the Information Management System for Mine Action (IMSMA), while Benigni and Furrer analyzed IED locations from Iraq Significant Activities (SIGACTS) III [ 7 ]. Medina and colleagues drew from the US National Counterterrorism Center’s (NCTC) Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (WITS), which although being a rich dataset of all attacks requires the researcher to use a gazetteer to geo-locate events [ 25 ].…”

Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat

“…In an effort to capture the regularities of these patterns within a predictive framework, Benigni and Furrer (2012) employ a Poisson process model to quantify the spatio-temporal interaction in the data with the explicit aim to aid operational decision-making. They focus on one stretch of road in Baghdad that was well known for being a dangerous route for counterinsurgent forces.…”