Spatio-Temporal Distribution and Hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Northern Thailand

Abstract

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

Factors associated with hand foot mouth disease among children in day care center, Chiang Rai, Thailand

“…There are many children living together in day care center during the daytime, which is a contributing factor to the epidemic of HFMD. Samphutthanon et al [19] reported that children who lived in crowded place had a high risk to expose and get infection of HFMD in China. The study of Navarro et al [20] presented that the children who attended day care center had 14 times greater chance of getting HFMD infection than those who did not.…”

Integrating GIS with AHP and Fuzzy Logic to generate hand, foot and mouth disease hazard zonation (HFMD-HZ) model in Thailand

“…According to the figures of the Bureau of Epidemiology of the past 10 years, HFMD outbreaks occurred mainly in this region (Samphutthanon, 2014). Until now, effective chemoprophylaxis or vaccination approaches for dealing with HFMD are not available.…”

Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters of measles incidence at the county level in Guangxi, China during 2004–2014: flexibly shaped scan statistics

“…And the mean centers denote the area and extent of the incidence of measles cases. The linear directional mean was conducted in Arc GIS 10.0 to measure the directional trend of measles transmission in Guangxi, using the annual mean center movements of measles incidence during 2004–2014 [26]. …”