Spatio-temporal analysis of the impact of climate, cropping intensity and means of irrigation: an assessment on rice yield determinants in Bangladesh

Ara, Iffat; Lewis, Mervyn K.; Ostendorf, Bertram

doi:10.1186/s40066-016-0061-9

Cited by 23 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…A correction was made for harvested area versus physical area. In China, for example this ratio of physical area to harvested area is around 0.6 due to multiple and triple cropping (Frolking et al, 2002), in Bangladesh 0.67 in 1980 CE and 0.55 in 2010 CE (Ara et al, 2016), in Vietnam 0.63 (range 1.25-0.48) (Wiens, 1998), and India 0.71-0.73 (GYGA, 2017;Kalaiselvi and Sundar, 2011). The 0.6 ratio was also applied to other Asian rice-producing countries; the rest of the world is assumed to have a ratio of 1.0.…”

Section: Ricementioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2

Goldewijk

Beusen

Doelman

et al. 2017

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

761

624

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Abstract. This paper presents an update and extension of HYDE, the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE version 3.2). HYDE is an internally consistent combination of historical population estimates and allocation algorithms with time-dependent weighting maps for land use. Categories include cropland, with new distinctions for irrigated and rain-fed crops (other than rice) and irrigated and rain-fed rice. Grazing lands are also provided, divided into more intensively used pasture and less intensively used rangeland, and further specified with respect to conversion of natural vegetation to facilitate global change modellers. Population is represented by maps of total, urban, rural population, population density and built-up area. The period covered is 10 000 before Common Era (BCE) to 2015 Common Era (CE). All data can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.17026/dans-25g-gez3.We estimate that global population increased from 4.4 million people (we also estimate a lower range < 0.01 and an upper range of 8.9 million) in 10 000 BCE to 7.257 billion in 2015 CE, resulting in a global population density increase from 0.03 persons (or capita, in short cap) km −2 (range 0-0.07) to almost 56 cap km −2 respectively. The urban built-up area evolved from almost zero to roughly 58 Mha in 2015 CE, still only less than 0.5 % of the total land surface of the globe.Cropland occupied approximately less than 1 % of the global land area (13 037 Mha, excluding Antarctica) for a long time period until 1 CE, quite similar to the grazing land area. In the following centuries the share of global cropland slowly grew to 2.2 % in 1700 CE (ca. 293 Mha, uncertainty range 220-367 Mha), 4.4 % in 1850 CE (578 Mha, range 522-637 Mha) and 12.2 % in 2015 CE (ca. 1591 Mha, range 1572-1604 Mha). Cropland can be further divided into rain-fed and irrigated land, and these categories can be further separated into rice and non-rice. Rain-fed croplands were much more common, with 2.2 % in 1700 CE (289 Mha, range 217-361 Mha), 4.2 % (549 Mha, range 496-606 Mha) in 1850 CE and 10.1 % (1316 Mha, range 1298-1325 Mha) in 2015 CE, while irrigated croplands used less than 0.05 % (4.3 Mha, range 3.1-5.5 Mha), 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 25-31 Mha) and 2.1 % (277 Mha, range 273-278 Mha) in 1700, 1850 and 2015 CE, respectively. We estimate the irrigated rice area (paddy) to be 0.1 % (13 Mha, range 9-16 Mha) in 1700 CE, 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 26-31 Mha) in 1850 CE and 0.9 % (118 Mha, range 117-120 Mha) in 2015 CE.The estimates for land used for grazing are much more uncertain. We estimate that the share of grazing land grew from 5.1 % in 1700 CE (667 Mha, range 507-820 Mha) to 9.6 % in 1850 CE (1192 Mha, range 1068-1304 Mha) and 24.9 % in 2015 CE (3241 Mha, range 3211-3270 Mha). To aid the modelling community we have divided land used for grazing into more intensively used pasture, less intensively used converted rangeland and less or unmanaged natural unconverted rangeland. Pasture occupied 1.1 % in 1700 CE (145 Mha, range 79-175 Mha), 1.9 % in 1850 CE (253 Mha...

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Section: Ricementioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2

Goldewijk

Beusen

Doelman

et al. 2017

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

761

624

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There is already evidence that a shortening of the rainy season, or heavy rainfall, high temperatures, cold waves, or more frequent dry spells can all influence rice yields locally in certain districts in Bangladesh [37,38]. Disasters [35,36], regional management [1,39], and local microclimatic conditions [37] have become important indicators of change, which need further local investigation.…”

Section: Data Limitations Uncertainties and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rice has become a primary concern for national food security in Bangladesh [1][2][3]. Climate change may influence rice food security in many parts of the world including Bangladesh [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have analysed rice agricultural management on the basis of historical trends alone for different ecotypes [2,28], but with no regional context. Recently, Ara et al [1] investigated the spatiotemporal effects of climate change and other variables on the total rice yield in Bangladesh at the greater district level but did not consider such effects for various rice ecotypes grown in different seasons. In general, assessments on climate change impact at a regional scale are rare for Bangladesh's rice agriculture for the three ecotypes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the Spatially Variable Effects of Climate Change on Rice Yield for Three Ecotypes in Bangladesh, 1981–2010

Ara

Lewis

Ostendorf

2017

Advances in Agriculture

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Climate change will impact on rice food security in many parts of the world, including Bangladesh. Little attention has been given to understanding the impact of climate on rice yield for three main ecotypes (Aus, Aman, and Boro) in different areas of the country. The aim of this paper was to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of rice yield and climatic variables and the spatially variable climate effects on rice yield for these ecotypes in Bangladesh during 1981-2010 by employing linear mixed models and generalized linear models. The results demonstrated the substantial spatiotemporal variations of rice yield for all ecotypes across the country. Rice yield for ecotypes was more susceptible to temperature changes than rainfall effects. Modelling of a 1 ∘ C temperature increase in the country showed strong regional differences in rice yield for these ecotypes. The study concludes that future temperature changes are likely to change regional rice yield for all ecotypes and hence impact food security. The results have important consequences for food security by indicating the need for appropriate region-specific adaptation measures to reduce rice yield variability in the future. The results show the need to consider spatial differences for policy development to improve food security in Bangladesh.

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“…Choudhury and Khan (2015) showed that the Aman rice yield has gradually increased by almost 3 fold from 1972 to 2014. Increasing temperature and variable rainfall levels along with severe and frequent floods, droughts and cyclones adversely affect agricultural production and place Bangladesh's food security at risk (Ara et al, 2016;Karim, 2012;Zakaria et al, 2014). The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of climatic parameters on Aman rice production in Rangpur District, a district from north-western region of Bangladesh.…”

Section: …………………………………………………………………………………………………… Introduction:-mentioning

confidence: 99%