Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature projections based on representative concentration pathways for Satluj River Basin, India

Abstract

A spatio-temporal analysis of representative concentration pathways (RCPs)-based projections of surface air temperatures under different combinations of global circulation models (GCMs) and RCPs for Satluj River Basin has been presented. The projections of temperature anomalies have been obtained for several meteorological stations in the basin using 16 different combinations of emission scenarios and global climate models (GCMs). For each combination, the projections of temperature anomalies have been analysed for two future time periods centred at 2030 and 2050. The results of the analysis conducted herein clearly indicate that the temperature will rise for all the future time scales with the maximum increase being projected under RCP8.5 compared to the baseline 1986-2005. However, there is large inter-model variability in the projections of temperature anomalies under different RCPs. Under RCP 8.5, the average temperature in Satluj basin is projected to rise by around 4°C by mid of the twenty-first century. The projections of temperature anomalies analysed herein could be potentially used for the evaluation of hydrological impacts of climate change in Satluj River Basin-a key basin in the Himalayan region from the view point of global warming.