Spatio-temporal Analysis of COVID-19: A Global Study

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 is an international public health emergency in the world. Objectives: The aim of the present study is to determine the geographic pattern and temporal trend of Coronavirus disease 2019 incidence, fatality, and recovery rates worldwide. Methods: The present ecological study is a mixed exploratory study. The study population included Patients with COVID-19, recovered individuals, and deaths from COVID-19 from October 1, 2019, until June 30, 2021, worldwide. Descriptive analysis included the calculation cumulative incidence rate (CIR), case fatality rate (CFR), and case recovery rate (CRR) of COVID-19. Global Moran's I and Anselin Local Moran's I tests were used for spatial analysis. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the time trend by ArcGIS, Joinpoint, and SPSS software. Results: The average cumulative incidence rate was 1077 in 106 individuals; also, the average case recovery rate and average case fatality rate were %72.81 and %3.21, respectively. Global Moran's I index measured for CIR was 0.159. The results of Anselin's local Moran's I, high-high cluster, consists of some countries in South America and in southern and Western Europe and central and western Asia. The temporal trend of changes in the incidence rate and CRR of COVID-19 were incremental, and the average annual percentage change from October 2019 to June 2021 increased by 44.4% and 3.2%, respectively (P < 0.001), but CFR decreased by -0.3% and was not significant (P > 0.05). Conclusions: As regards the specific spatial pattern of fatality and recovery rate of COVID-19, it seems essential to consider spatial conditions and environmental factors which are related to the incidence and fatality of COVID-19 in different regions, as well as the necessity of upgrading the care system in high-risk areas, in order to have better management and control of the pandemic and optimal function in early diagnosis, proper treatment, and high vaccination coverage.