Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Kamruzzaman, Md.; Rahman, Arafat; Ahmed, Shakil; Kabir, Enamul; Mazumder, Quamrul H.; Rahman, M. Sayedur; Jahan, Chowdhury Sarwar

doi:10.1007/s10668-016-9872-x

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…However, positive trends in the rainfall and temperature dominated the western part of Bangladesh (Shahid and Khairulmaini, 2009;Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a). Moreover, a recent study found a negative trend in the evapotranspiration for four stations located in northwest Bangladesh (Acharjee et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2a), with an average of 1338 mm. High P ET values were observed in the central part of the area, where the annual rainfall was low, but the temperature was high (Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a). The standard deviations of the P ET varied from 205 (Jessore station) to 41 mm (Bhola station).…”

Section: Exploratory Statistics Of the Water Balance Componentsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In this study, the trends in the WBCs were detected using the nonparametric MK test (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1975) because it exhibits a better performance than the parametric test (Nalley et al, 2012) for identifying trends in hydrological variables, such as rainfall (Shahid, 2010), temperature (Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a), P ET (Kumar et al, 2016), soil moisture (Tabari and Talaee, 2013), runoff (Pathak et al, 2016), groundwater level , and water quality (Lutz et al, 2016). The MK test cannot be used to accurately calculate the test statistic (Z) if there exists a significant serial correlation at lag 1 in the time series data (Yue et al, 2002) because the variance is underestimated (Hamed and Rao, 1998).…”

Section: Trend Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, detecting the periodicity through the wavelet transformation of hydrometeorological time series data has gained popularity in recent years (Partal and Küçük, 2006;Partal, 2009;Nalley et al, 2013;Araghi et al, 2015;Pathak et al, 2016). Studies have been conducted on the spatiotemporal characteristics of hydrometeorological variables, such as rainfall (Shahid and Khairulmaini, 2009;Ahasan et al, 2010;Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a;Rahman and Lateh, 2016;Syed and Al Amin, 2016), temperature (Shahid, 2010;Nasher and Uddin, 2013;Syed and Al Amin, 2016;Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a), and P ET Acharjee, 2017), in Bangladesh. Karim et al (2012) studied the WBCs, such as the P ET , A ET , deficit of water, and surplus of water, of 12 districts in Bangladesh.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 Study area, data, and methods (Kamruzzaman et al, 2016a). Bangladesh is the fourth-largest producer of rice in the world (Scott and Sharma, 2009), and the livelihood of a majority of the people (approximately 75 %) (Shahid and Behrawan, 2008;Kamruzzaman et al, 2016b) depends on agricultural practices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh

Rahman

Ahmed

Adnan

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objectives of the present study were to explore the changes in the water balance components (WBCs) by co-utilizing the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and different forms of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and develop a wavelet denoise autoregressive integrated moving average (WD-ARIMA) model for forecasting the WBCs. The results revealed that most of the potential evapotranspiration (P ET ) trends (approximately 73 %) had a decreasing tendency from 1981-1982 to 2012-2013 in the western part of Bangladesh. However, most of the trends (approximately 82 %) were not statistically significant at a 5 % significance level. The actual evapotranspiration (A ET ), annual deficit, and annual surplus also exhibited a similar tendency. The rainfall and temperature exhibited increasing trends. However, the WBCs exhibited an inverse trend, which suggested that the P ET changes associated with temperature changes could not explain the change in the WBCs. Moreover, the 8-year (D3) and 16-year (D4) periodic components were generally responsible for the trends found in the original WBC data for the study area. The actual data was affected by noise, which resulted in the ARIMA model exhibiting an unsatisfactory performance. Therefore, wavelet denoising of the WBC time series was conducted to improve the performance of the ARIMA model. The quality of the denoising time series data was ensured using relevant statistical analysis. The performance of the WD-ARIMA model was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient and coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The WD-ARIMA model exhibited very good performance, which clearly demonstrated the advantages of denoising the time series data for forecasting the WBCs. The validation results of the model revealed that the forecasted values were very close to actual values, with an acceptable mean percentage error. The residuals also followed a normal distribution. The performance and validation results indicated that models can be used for the short-term forecasting of WBCs. Further studies on different combinations of wavelet analysis are required to develop a superior model for the hydrological forecasting in the context of climate change. The findings of this study can be used to improve water resource management in the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Exploratory Statistics Of the Water Balance Componentsmentioning

confidence: 94%