Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation pattern of land use/cover changes, case study: Naghadeh, Iran

Parsa, Vahid Amini; Salehi, Esmail

doi:10.1016/j.jum.2016.11.001

Cited by 48 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The overall trend of land use type area change based on the natural development scenario in this area is consistent with most studies, and the only difference is that the cultivated land area showed a declining trend, which was different from other places [7,72,77]. The changing trend was the same as other studies done in this area [78].…”

Section: The Changes Of Landscape Patternsupporting

confidence: 87%

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Guan

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Climatic, socio-economic, geophysical, and human activity factors, among others, influence land use patterns. However, these driving factors also have different relationships with each other. Combining machine learning methods and statistical models is a good way to simulate the dominant land use types. The Luan River basin is located in a farming-pastoral transitional zone and is an important ecological barrier between Beijing and Tianjin. In this study, we predicted future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2020 in the Luan River’s upper and middle reaches under three scenarios—the natural scenario, the ecological scenario, and the sustainable scenario. The results indicate that cultivated land will decrease while the forested areas will increase quantitatively in the future. Built-up areas would increase quickly in the natural scenario, and augmented expansion of forest would be the main features of land use changes in both the ecological scenario and the sustainable scenario. Regarding the spatial pattern, different land use patterns will be aggregated and patches will become larger. Our findings for the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in the upper and middle Luan River basin.

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Section: The Changes Of Landscape Patternsupporting

confidence: 87%

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Guan

Jiang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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“…By comparing the actual and projected land use maps of 2018, we found a kappa value of 0.42. This Kappa value indicates that the model accuracy is moderate yet acceptable for projecting future LUCs as the observed agreement using the model exceeds the expected agreement by chance [23,62,63].…”

Section: Integrated Ca-mc Model Implementation and Validationmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…One salient area of research has been modeling the nature and the geographies of the massive conversion of "other" land-use types into built-up areas because of rapid urban expansion [17,18]. For example, previous studies have revealed that the built-up area expansion has predominantly been occurring by means of the conversion of agricultural land [19][20][21], forest [22], and open lands [23,24], depending on the context. These rapid and often uncontrolled and unplanned land use conversions have become a key challenge as they impact livelihoods in both the earlier communities and the newly emerging sprawl communities alike, and therefore ultimately the sustainability of the urban expansion at large [13,18,25].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we apply such an integrated CA-MC model with an AHP process for the purpose of modeling and predicting the geographies of the urban expansion around Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. We argue that the results of this research can help policymakers to implement more coherent and sustainable urban planning strategies as it allows us to capture both past and likely future trends.In spite of Mundia and Murayama [32] affirming the applicability of the CA-MC model in developing countries, mainly due to the absence of reliable and accurate data, it has been rarely employed for analyzing Africa's urban expansion [12,23,32,33]. Against this backdrop, the primary objective of this research is to model and dissect the nature and geographies of urban expansion on LUCs in Bahir Dar by combining an integrated CA-MC model and the AHP technique of expert surveys.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In spite of Mundia and Murayama [32] affirming the applicability of the CA-MC model in developing countries, mainly due to the absence of reliable and accurate data, it has been rarely employed for analyzing Africa's urban expansion [12,23,32,33]. Against this backdrop, the primary objective of this research is to model and dissect the nature and geographies of urban expansion on LUCs in Bahir Dar by combining an integrated CA-MC model and the AHP technique of expert surveys.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Fitawok

Derudder

Minale

et al. 2020

Land

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The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

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Land Use and Land Cover Change Dynamics and Modeling Future Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata Model Over Isfahan Metropolitan Area of Iran

Estalkhsari

Mohammad²,

Karimi³

2022

Springer Climate

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Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation pattern of land use/cover changes, case study: Naghadeh, Iran

Cited by 48 publications

References 33 publications

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Land Use and Land Cover Change Dynamics and Modeling Future Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata Model Over Isfahan Metropolitan Area of Iran

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