Spatially Modeling the Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reefs in the South China Sea

Zuo, Xiaoli; Su, Fenzhen; Yu, Kefu; Wang, Yinghui; Wang, Qi; Wu, Huisheng

doi:10.3390/rs13132626

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…In California, similar variations between positive and negative impacts on the number of fish species were noticed in correlation with the increase in SST [83]. Marine ecosystems in the South China Sea are experiencing both negative and positive impacts with the regional variation of SLR [84]. Coastal wetland areas are expected to decrease by 22% globally before the end of the century, which will directly impact the ecosystem and the natural habitats they contain [60].…”

Section: Environmental Ecological and Chemical Impactsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Exploring Key Aspects of Sea Level Rise and Their Implications: An Overview

Elneel,

Zitouni,

Mukhtar

et al. 2024

Water

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Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most pressing challenges of climate change and has drawn noticeable research interest over the past few decades. Factors induced by global climate change, such as temperature increase, have resulted in both direct and indirect changes in sea levels at different spatial scales. Various climatic and non-climatic events contribute to sea level changes, posing risks to coastal and low-lying areas. Nevertheless, changes in sea level are not uniformly distributed globally due to several regional factors such as wave actions, storm surge frequencies, and tectonic land movement. The high exposure to those factors increases the vulnerability of subjected areas to SLR impacts. The impacts of events induced by climate change and SLR are reflected in biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental aspects. Different indicator-based and model-based approaches are used to assess coastal areas’ vulnerabilities, response to impacts, and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Various studies have been conducted to project future SLR impacts and evaluate implemented protection and adaptation approaches, aiding policymakers in planning effective adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce damage. This paper provides an overview of SLR and its key elements, encompassing contributing factors, impacts, and mitigation and adaptation measures, featuring a dedicated section on the Arabian Gulf, a semi-enclosed sea.

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Section: Environmental Ecological and Chemical Impactsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Exploring Key Aspects of Sea Level Rise and Their Implications: An Overview

Elneel,

Zitouni,

Mukhtar

et al. 2024

Water

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“…There are several other approaches to examine coral reef vulnerability to future climate change. In addition to the five approaches outlined above, one study adopted a spatial modeling approach to project the combined effects of warming and sea-level rise on the future coral reef growth rates in the South China Sea 97 . Another integrated linear extension rates of corals from three different islands in the same region with future SSTs to forecast coral growth rates 98 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Klein,

Roch,

Duarte

2024

Nat Commun

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Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world’s coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. ‘Excess heat’ models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field’s ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

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“…There are three main reasons for global mean sea level rise: thermosteric change, barystatic change, and halosteric change [21]. In the SCS, CMIP5 models predict a minimum SLR of 25.8 cm (2.72 mm/year), 32.6 cm (3.43 mm/year), 44.7 cm (4.7 mm/year), and a maximum SLR of 57.1 cm (6.01 mm/year), 65.6 cm (6.91 mm/year), and 84.5 cm (8.89 mm/year) in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively [54]. Under anthropogenic forcing, long-term dynamic sea level projections rely on global coupled climate models to mimic ocean dynamical responses to changing radiative forcing [14].…”

Section: Sea Level Projection For Malaysian Seasmentioning

confidence: 98%

Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century

Azran

Jeofry

Chung

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Sea level rise will significantly impact coastal areas around the world. As a coastal country, Malaysia’s rising sea levels are a significant concern because they would affect 70% of its population. The study of sea level rise is important in order to implement effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study investigates the performance of CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in simulating sea level rise in the Malaysian seas using various statistical methods. The models’ performances were evaluated by comparing historic CMIP6 GCM runs from 1993 to 2010 with sea level measurements from the satellite altimetry AVISO+ using the Taylor diagram. The SCS (SCSPM and SCSEM) had a higher sea level range and trend in both selected areas than the SM and SS. With 1.5 °C warmings, the multi-model ensemble means predicted that the SCS would rise by 16 mm near the Peninsular, with sea levels increasing by 0.908 m at a rate of 1.5 mm/year, and by 14.5 mm near East Malaysia, with sea levels increasing by 0.895 m at a rate of 1.1 mm/year. In contrast, 2.0 °C warmings project that SCSPM and SCSEM would cause sea levels to rise by 20.2 mm and 21.5 mm, respectively, at a rate of 0.6 mm/year and 0.7 mm/year. This information will provide an insight into Malaysian sea levels between now and the end of the twenty-first century, which will be beneficial for government agencies, academics, and relevant stakeholders.

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Spatially Modeling the Synergistic Impacts of Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reefs in the South China Sea

Cited by 6 publications

References 68 publications

Exploring Key Aspects of Sea Level Rise and Their Implications: An Overview

Exploring Key Aspects of Sea Level Rise and Their Implications: An Overview

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Southern South China Sea Dynamics: Sea Level Change from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the 21st Century

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