Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria

Fuwape, I. A.; Ogunjo, Samuel; Oluyamo, S. S.; Rabiu, Babatunde

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1867-x

Cited by 44 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The mean period or periodicity P in a time series was used to remove cyclic/ seasonal variations in the time series data (seasonal differencing). If the data is not made stationary, the phase space reconstruction will not be properly achieved and the deterministic components of the data will not be adequately revealed leading to misleading results in the computed values of Lyapunov exponents and predictability [20,21]. 3.…”

Section: Theoretical Considerations Phase Space Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Ev¹

2020

PSBJ

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This research applies the tools of statistical analysis and nonlinear dynamics on rainfall, average temperature and solar radiation records over Port Harcourt, Nigeria, so as to quantify the signatures of chaos and analyze the trend of predictability of the weather over the last three decades. Quantifying the degree of chaos and the predictability of a dynamical system like weather time series is carried out by computing the largest Lyapunov exponents and then taking the inverse to get the predictability of the system. Rosenstein's algorithm was deployed in evaluating the yearly values of the largest Lyapunov exponents and predictability for each data set and the results obtained were subjected to Correlation analysis, Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator so as to estimate the trends and relationship between the predictability of these parameters and the total CO 2 emissions recorded in the region over the three decade period. The results obtained show that the trends in the Lyapunov exponents and predictability of rainfall, average temperature and solar radiation in Port Harcourt are all significant; with the relationship between the predictabilities of the meteorological variables and the annual Total CO 2 emissions found to have a decreasing trend. This implies the prevalence of fluctuating and extreme weather as well as failure in the accurate short-term prediction of the weather over Port Harcourt in the near future as a result of greenhouse gas emissions from oil exploration and refining activities.

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Section: Theoretical Considerations Phase Space Reconstructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Ev¹

2020

PSBJ

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“…In the limit q → 1, Tsallis entropy (equation 2) becomes the Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy (equation 1). Entropy analysis has been used in the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical climate (Fuwape et al 2017), delineation of water resources zones in Japan (Kawachi et al 2001), pre-seismic emissions (Kalimeri et al 2008), investigation of abrupt climate change in Earth's climate (Gonzalez et al 2011) and application in hydrological processes (Singh 1997).…”

Section: Entropymentioning

confidence: 99%

Chaotic signature of climate extremes

Fuwape

Oluyamo

Rabiu

et al. 2019

Theor Appl Climatol

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Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained for the period 1979 -2012 using the ETCCDI data set. The pattern of trend was compared with nonlinear measures (Entropy, Hurst Exponent, Recurrence Quantification Analysis) of temperature and precipitation. Regions which show positive trends in temperature based extremes were found to be areas with low entropy and chaotic. Complexity measures also revealed that the dynamics of the southern hemisphere differs from that of the northern hemisphere.

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“…The phase space reconstruction will not be properly achieved and the deterministic components of the data will not be adequately revealed if the data is not made stationary and this could lead to misleading results in the nonlinear analysis of the data [31].…”

Section: Phase Space Reconstitutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the Characteristics of Monthly Rainfall Pattern in Katsina

Tikyaa¹,

Anjorin

Joseph³

2019

PSIJ

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Aims: This paper seeks to analyse the characteristics of monthly rainfall pattern in Katsina City in a view to unveiling the trends and describing its dynamics so that adequate recommendations can be made for its modelling. Study Design: The analysis involves a complete statistical, trend, spectral and nonlinear analysis of the monthly rainfall time series recorded in Katsina. Place and Duration of Study: Location: Katsina City, Katsina State, Nigeria from 1990 to 2015; a period of 26 years. Methodology: Secondary data of daily rainfall recorded in Katsina city from 1990 to 2015 was collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and monthly averages were taken to obtain the monthly rainfall data. The data was then subjected to statistical, trend, spectral and nonlinear analysis techniques to reveal the behavioural patterns in the rainfall and also to reveal its underlying dynamics for its future modelling and prediction. Results: The outcome of this analysis indicates that the monthly rainfall in Katsina exhibits an increasing trend with high variance and right-skewed distribution requiring a maximum of 6 independent variables to model its dynamics. The correlation exponent plot reached a saturation value of 5.892 confirming that the monthly rainfall in Katsina over the last 26 years exhibits low dimensional chaotic behavior while the largest Lyapunov exponent for the monthly rainfall time series in Katsina was also computed and found to be positive, having a value of 0.006055/month confirming the presence of deterministic chaos dynamics and is predictable for the next 165 months. Conclusion: Since from the findings of this work it is confirmed that the rainfall in Katsina exhibits chaotic behavior with an increasing trend, it is recommended that more drainages and dams be built to provide steady supply of water for agricultural and domestic purposes as well as curtail the menace of flooding and drought which may occur as a result of global warming and climate change.

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Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria

Cited by 44 publications

References 38 publications

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Effect of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the Predictability of Rainfall, Temperature and Solar Radiation in Port Harcourt, Nigeria

Chaotic signature of climate extremes

Analysis of the Characteristics of Monthly Rainfall Pattern in Katsina

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