Spatial-Temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics and Its Correlation with El Niño-Southern Oscillation during 1960–2019 in Hubei Province, China

Abstract

Extreme precipitation could result in many disasters, such as floods, drought, and soil erosion, further bringing severe economic loss. Based on the daily precipitation records during 1960–2019 of 26 stations obtained from the National Meteorological Science Data Center of China, 10 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs: annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), max-1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), max-5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), number of heavy rain days (R10), number of very heavy rain days (R10), simple daily intensity index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), continued wet days (CWD), very wet days (R95p) and extremely wet days (R99p)) were chosen and used to analyze the spatial-temporal variation of extreme precipitation within Hubei province, China, which is an important industrial and agricultural base in China. Finally, the correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and EPIs was analyzed by cross-wavelet analysis. Results showed that the annual EPIs varied obviously during 1960–2019, and CWD decreased significantly (p < 0.05). The chosen EPIs were higher in eastern and southwestern Hubei compared to other regions, and RX1day, RX5day, R95p, and R99p were increased in most regions. The spatial-temporal variations of spring and summer EPIs were more obvious than those on an annual scale. In summer, all EPIs except CDD should increase in the near future. More attention should be paid to Wuhan, Enshi, and Macheng, where the RX1day, RX5day, R95p, and R99p will increase in these regions. Finally, the RX1day and R10 were positively correlated with MEI (p < 0.05), while the RX5day, CDD, CWD, and R99p were negatively correlated with MEI (p < 0.05). The extreme precipitation events within Hubei were affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The results could provide a possible driving factor for precipitation prediction and natural hazard prevention within Hubei province, China.

Leading Pattern of Spring Drought Variability over East Asia and Associated Drivers

“…Particularly, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a crucial role in driving the interannual variations of extreme dry conditions in China (Cao et al [33] ; Wang and Li [34] ). The El Niño-like SST can lead to the intensification and westward shift of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high, resulting in reduced precipitation and increased temperatures in South and Southwestern China, which in turn favor the occurrence of drought events (Wang et al [35] ). In addition, Asian large-scale orography forcing, particularly the Tibetan Plateau (TP), significantly increases ascent, low-middle cloud formation, and resultant strong spring cloud radiative cooling over Southeastern China (SEC) and downstream ocean, thereby affecting climate change (Kiehl and Trenberth [36] ; Li et al [37] ).…”