Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change

Sun, Jun; Wang, Huijun; Yuan, Wei; Chen, Huopo

doi:10.1029/2009jd013541

Cited by 118 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…They also indicated that the increased probability of heavy rainfall events in this region is closely connected with increased water vapor transportation from the Tropical Ocean and the increasing instability of the atmosphere stratification under the global warming scenario. In addition, the frequency of the intense snowfall events over southern China is reported to decrease, while over northern China the intense snowfall events initially increase and then decrease [16]. These changes exhibit significant agreement with the simulations by regional climate models (RCM), but with more local small-scale information provided in the high-resolution RCMs [17][18][19][20][21].…”

supporting

confidence: 63%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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135

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Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warming scenarios. CMIP5, precipitation, extreme rainfall, atmospheric circulation, projection Citation:Chen H P. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull, 2013, 58: 14621472, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2The significant warming that has been observed globally over the past century has a high probability of being due to the increase in anthropogenic factors concentrating greenhouse gases. This significant warming has produced a significant impact on human society, ecosystems, and the environment, and this warming is capable of causing thousands of deaths and heavy economic losses. By the end of the 21st century, as reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), human society will become much more vulnerable as the consequences of continuous global warming, with global temperature increasing by 1.1-6.4°C relative to 1980-1999 [1]. Due to these future negative impacts, governments and the public alike have begun to pay increased attention to climate change under the global warming scenario.Modern global climate models that are capable of realistically simulating many aspects of the climate are the primary tools for determining the attribution of recent warming and for developing projections of future climate change. Researchers in China have taken a great deal of effort to study future climate change based on such model simulations, and some valuable and c...

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supporting

confidence: 63%

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Chen

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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135

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“…The increasing amount of extreme precipitation accounts for 71.6% of the total precipitation increase, implying that the increase of winter extreme precipitation is much larger than that of precipitation in a warming environment in China. This phenomenon coincides with the recent occurrence of many record-breaking snowfall events in China [14][15][16] and with projections of increased winter precipitation and extreme weather events in China in the context of climate warming [17,18].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

Sun

2012

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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112

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This study analyses the decadal changes in winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. The results show that, together with a trend of winter warming in China, winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in the region are also increasing. In addition, concurrent with the decadal warming shift that occurred in the mid-1980s, precipitation and extreme precipitation both increased significantly. Quantitative analysis shows that precipitation and extreme precipitation increased at rates of 9.7% and 22.6% per 1°C of surface warming in China. This rate of precipitation increase is greater than the global mean, which indicates that precipitation in China is highly sensitive to climate warming and further highlights the importance of studying regional responses to climate warming. The fact that extreme precipitation is increasing at a higher rate than precipitation implies that winter precipitation in China will increasingly be of more extreme type in the context of global warming, which could partly explain why there have recently been a number of record-breaking extreme snowfall events in China.winter precipitation, extreme precipitation, global warming, sensitivity, regional response, climate change Citation:Sun

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“…Strong snowfalls often cause damages to pasturage and other properties and bring hazardous conditions to transportation and other human activities. Therefore, numerous studies have been conducted to understand the formation, mechanisms and predictability of snowstorms (Wang and Ding 1995;Zielinski 2002;Zhang et al 2002;Kocin and Uccellini 2004;Changnon et al 2006;Sun et al 2010). Anomalous atmospheric circulation both in the troposphere and stratosphere is associated with the snowstorm and cold surge in East Asia (Sun et al 2009;Jeong et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast china: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model

Wang

Yang³

2011

Meteorol Atmos Phys

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In Northeast China (NEC), snowfalls usually occur during winter and early spring, from mid-October to late March, and strong snowfalls rarely occur in middle spring. During 12-13 April 2010, an exceptionally strong snowfall occurred in NEC, with 26.8 mm of accumulated water-equivalent snow over Harbin, the capital of the most eastern province in NEC. In this study, the major features of the snowfall and associated large-scale circulation and the predictability of the snowfall are analyzed using both observations and models. The Siberia High intensified and shifted southeastward from 10 days before the snowfall, resulting in intensifying the low-pressure system over NEC and strengthening the East Asian Trough during 12-13 April. Therefore, large convergence of water vapor and strong rising motion appeared over eastern NEC, resulting in heavy snowfall. Hindcast experiments were carried out using the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a two-way nesting approach, forced by NCEP Global Forecast System data sets. Many observed features including the large-scale and regional circulation anomalies and snowfall amount can be reproduced reasonably well, suggesting the feasibility of the WRF model in forecasting extreme weather events over NEC. A quantitative analysis also shows that the nested NEC domain simulation is even better than mother domain simulation in simulating the snowfall amount and spatial distribution, and that both simulations are more skillful than the NCEP Global Forecast System output. The forecast result from the nested forecast system is very promising for an operational purpose.

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Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change

Cited by 118 publications

References 23 publications

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast china: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model

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