Spatial-temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Hubei Province, China, 2011–2021

Abstract

Background Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is an infectious disease of major public health problem, China is one of the PTB high burden counties in the word. Hubei is one of the provinces having the highest notification rate of tuberculosis in China. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PTB in Hubei province for targeted intervention on TB epidemics. Methods The data on PTB cases were extracted from the National Tuberculosis Information Management System correspond to population in 103 counties of Hubei Province from 2011 to 2021. The effect of PTB control was measured by variation trend of bacteriologically confirmed PTB notification rate and total PTB notification rate. Time series, spatial autonomic correlation and spatial-temporal scanning methods were used to identify the temporal trends and spatial patterns at county level of Hubei. Results A total of 436,955 cases were included in this study. The total PTB notification rate decreased significantly from 81.66 per 100,000 population in 2011 to 52.25 per 100,000 population in 2021. The peak of PTB notification occurred in late spring and early summer annually. This disease was spatially clustering with Global Moran’s I values ranged from 0.34 to 0.63 (P< 0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that the hot spots are mainly distributed in the southwest and southeast of Hubei Province. Using the SaTScan 10.0.2 software, results from the staged spatial-temporal analysis identified sixteen clusters. Conclusions This study identified seasonal patterns and spatial-temporal clusters of PTB cases in Hubei province. High-risk areas in southwestern Hubei still exist, and need to focus on and take targeted control and prevention measures.

Spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in eastern China from 2011 to 2021

“…Third, during the Spring Festival in China (January to February), patients are less motivated to seek medical treatment as they are busy celebrating the holiday [ 33 ]. The seasonal trend observed in this study is consistent with the findings in other studies in Jiangsu Province [ 34 ], as well as previous studies in Chongqing Municipality [ 15 ] and Hubei Province [ 20 ].…”

“…The value of Moran’s I ranges from −1 to 1. For a positive I, a larger value indicates a stronger spatial clustering pattern; for a negative I, a smaller value indicates a weaker spatial clustering pattern; and a zero I suggests there is no spatial clustering [ 20 ]. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to analyse the spatial differences in PTB registration incidence rates at the county level via the cluster map of local spatial correlation indicators.…”

More Than a Decade of GeneXpert® Mycobacterium tuberculosis/Rifampicin (Ultra) Testing in South Africa: Laboratory Insights from Twenty-Three Million Tests

“…Cyclical annual trends of decreases in testing, coupled with increases in the detection rate of the specimens that are tested, are noted during festive and holiday periods, suggesting only the very ill are tested. These annual trends are also reflected in previous studies [24,25].…”

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Notification Rate Within Shenzhen, China, 2010-2019: Spatial-Temporal Analysis

“…The notification rate of PTB in Shenzhen municipality declined steadily during the ten-year study period, decreasing from the peak of 64.97 cases per 100000 population in 2010 to the lowest of 43.43 cases per 100000 population in 2019. This downward trend is in line with other municipal, provincial, and national studies [6,[16][17][18][19]. The achievement is due in large part to the great importance attached by the local government and health administrative department in Shenzhen to PTB control and prevention in recent years.…”

“…On one hand, this may be closely related to the massive public transportation and population flow during the Chinese Spring Festival usually in late January or February [22,26], when many migrants left Shenzhen to return to their hometowns. On the other hand, people are busy celebrating the Lunar New Year, coupled with the frequent visits to relatives and friends during the period, and avoiding seeking medical care [17,18]. These multiple factors resulted in a significant decline in PTB cases reported but an increased risk of transmission among the infectious source and the close contactors during the holiday, concentrating in late spring and summer after an incubation period of several months to half of a year, including a two-month interval from the symptom appearance to medical diagnosis [24].…”