Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Rules and the Lucas Critique

Bisin, Alberto; Moro, Andrea

doi:10.3386/w28932

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

(32 reference statements)

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Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic

2022

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We develop a model of optimal lockdown policy for a social planner who balances population health with short-term wealth accumulation. The unique solution depends on tolerable infection incidence and social network structure. We then use unique data on nursing home networks in the US to calibrate the model and quantify state-level preference for prioritizing health over wealth. We also empirically validate simulation results derived from comparative statics analyses. Our findings suggest that policies that tolerate more virus spread (laissez-faire) increase state GDP growth and COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes. The detrimental effects of laissez-faire policies are more potent for nursing homes that are more peripheral in networks, nursing homes in poorer counties, and nursing homes that operate on a for-profit basis. We also find that US states with Republican governors have a higher tolerable incidence level, but these policies tend to converge with a high death count.

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Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic

2022

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Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

et al. 2023

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We propose a model, which nests a susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) epidemic model into a dynamic macroeconomic equilibrium framework with agents’ mobility. The latter affect both their income and their probability of infecting and being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. The continuum of rational forward-looking agents coordinates on the Nash equilibrium of a discrete time, finite-state, infinite-horizon Mean Field Game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for the search of an equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations. We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic and we discuss policy implications.

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JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread

Mangrum

Niekamp

2022

Journal of Urban Economics

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Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports, to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Rules and the Lucas Critique

Cited by 7 publications

References 33 publications

Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic

Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic

Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

JUE Insight: College student travel contributed to local COVID-19 spread

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