Spatial modeling of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii Engelm. (Pinaceae): a species conservation proposal in Mexico under climatic change scenarios

Abstract

Pinus greggii is a species of socioeconomic importance in terms of wood production and environmental services in Mexico, though it is restricted by particular environmental conditions to the Sierra Madre Occidental. Species distribution models are geospatial tools widely used in the identification and delineation of species' distribution areas and zones susceptible to climate change. The objectives of this study were to: (i) model and quantify the environmentally suitable area for Pinus greggii in Mexico, and possible future distributions under four different scenarios of climate change; (ii) identify the most relevant environmental variables that will possibly drive changes in future distribution; and (iii) to propose adequate zones for the species' conservation in Mexico. Some 438 records of Pinus greggii from several national and international databases were obtained, and duplicates were discarded to avoid overestimations in the models. Climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables were used and 100 distribution models for current and future scenarios were generated using the Maxent software. The best model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.93 for model training and validation, respectively, a partial ROC of 1.94, and a significant Z test (p<0.01). The current estimated suitable area of Pinus greggii in Mexico was 617,706.04 ha. The most relevant environmental variables for current distribution were annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, and slope. For the 2041-2060 models, annual mean temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, and slope were the most important drivers. The use of climatic models allowed to predict a future decrease in suitable habitat for the species by 2041-2060, ranging from 48,403.85 (7.8%-HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 model) to 134,680.17 ha (21.8%-CNRM-CM5 RCP 4.5). Spatial modeling of current and future ecological niche of Pinus greggii also allowed to delineate two zones for in situ conservation and restoration purpose in northeastern (Nuevo Leon) and central (Hidalgo) Mexico.

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) for Mexico: An Approach for Mexico’s Primary Harvest Area

“…In Mexico, several studies have been developed to model the distribution of species under current climate conditions and for climate change scenarios [18,39,49,50]. The reduction in area due to the effect of climate change in candelilla in Mexico presents a similar behavior at the national level [51].…”

“…To estimate the area (km 2 ) with current and future habitat suitability with the MPIESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES models, a reclassification of the continuous values of both projections across three categories with equal intervals (low, medium, and high), was developed with Arcmap software, version 10.3 [31]. The previous procedure allowed for the determination of cut-off thresholds and, through the high category, the transformation of the models from continuous to binary [39].…”

Different Modelling Approaches to Determine Suitable Areas for Conserving Egg-Cone Pine (Pinus oocarpa Schiede) Plus Trees in the Central Part of Mexico

“…Spatial modelling to determine the natural and suitable ranges of the forest species of interest has been used to define strategies for conservation, planning, and management of the species in the face of climate change. For this purpose, spatial modelling and mainly ecological niche models, together with other analytical tools (e.g., geographic information systems, GIS), have been used to assess species' climatic requirements and to model their distribution under current and future conditions [40,41,45].…”

Modelado de idoneidad ambiental en la identificación de sitios potenciales para la toma de datos dendrocronológicos

“…La aplicabilidad de los MNE no se ha limitado exclusivamente a cuestiones biogeográficas, biológicas y ecológicas (Phillips et al, 2006;Soberón y Peterson, 2005;Martínez-Sifuentes, Villanueva-Díaz, Manzanilla-Quiñones et al, 2020) sino que su uso ha servido como una herramienta auxiliar en las propuestas de manejo y conservación de los recursos naturales (Correa Ayram, et al, 2019;Méndez et al, 2020). Por lo que se sugiere el uso de técnicas de MNE en la identificación de sitios potenciales para la toma de datos dendrocronológicos de una región y/o especies de interés.…”