Spatial model of foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in an endemic area of Thailand

Time-Series Analysis for the Number of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Episodes in Cattle Farms in Thailand Using Data from 2010–2020

“…Between 2007 and 2017, a total of 4961 FMD outbreaks were reported in these countries [ 15 ]. In Thailand, FMD has persisted for more than 60 years and spread periodically and temporarily in several regions of the country [ 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 ]. More than 1200 FMD outbreaks in cattle farms across several regions were officially reported from 2008 to 2019 [ 16 ].…”

Modeling foot-and-mouth disease dissemination in Brazil and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures

“…We demonstrated that until day 17, if we consider all species together, between-farm movement was the predominant dissemination route, whereas, for bovines, spatial transmission became the preferred transmission route at day ten. The demonstrated predominance of spatial transmission later in the epidemic could be explained at least to some degree by spread across short to mid distances in some areas of the state of Rio Grande do Sul characterized by cool temperatures and high humidity, which are known to favor virus survival rates (Björnham et al, 2020; Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021; Green et al, 2006). More importantly, based on the high connectivity of bovine farms in some municipalities described earlier (Cardenas et al, 2022), the initial peak in bovine infection could be explained by the movement of animals, while the flip toward spatial transmission could have been facilitated when secondary cases spread into areas densely populated with up to 12.23 km 2 farms (Cardenas et al, 2022) These densely populated areas coincide with our model simulation in which control actions were not sufficient to stamp out large-scale epidemics (Supplementary Material Figure S15).…”

“…number of heads, number of born alive), animal movements, models are oversimplified. The most common simplification is to restrict the epidemiological models to a single species (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021; Sseguya et al, 2022). Despite the different applications and efforts in modeling FMD, questions on measuring the epidemic trajectory and epidemic control strategies while considering heterogeneous transmission dynamics among the different susceptible species coexisting on the same farms remain outstanding (Seymour et al, 2022).…”

“…The majority of infected animals in both outbreaks were not unique to one species; for example, infection was detected in goats on mixed dairy-goat/veal-calf farms (Bouma et al, 2003; Thompson et al, 2002). The loss of the agricultural sector was approximately 3.2 billion euros, and there were additional costs to other sectors, such as tourism, with the total expenditure being approximately 2.7 to 3.2 billion euros (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021). Meanwhile, the distribution of FMD outbreaks in South America has changed over the years, with the most recent outbreaks being reported in Colombia in 2017 and 2018 (F. Gómez et al, 2019), while no epidemics have been reported in Latin America since then, despite Venezuela’s absence of official international status for FMD (PANAFTOSA-OPS/OMS, 2019).…”

“…Mathematical models have been widely used to investigate epidemic propagation, although major technical and computation advancements have been achieved, in most cases models are simplified because of computational cost and/or lack of details about herd structure (e.g., number of heads, number of born alive) and animal movements. The most common simplification is to restrict the epidemiological models to a single species (Chanchaidechachai et al, 2021; Sseguya et al, 2022). Despite the different applications and efforts in modeling FMD, questions on measuring the epidemic trajectory and epidemic control strategies while considering heterogeneous transmission dynamics among the different susceptible species coexisting on the same farms remain outstanding (Seymour et al, 2022).…”