Spatial Memory of Notable Hurricane Tracks and Their Geophysical Hazards

Abstract

Previous research has shown that people use a benchmark hurricane as part of their preparation and evacuation decision-making process. While hurricanes are a common occurrence along the Gulf Coast, research on personal memories of past storms is lacking. Particularly, how well do people remember the track and geophysical hazards (wind speed, storm surge, and total rainfall) of past storms? The accurate or inaccurate recollection and perception of previous storm details can influence personal responses to future storms, such as the decision to evacuate or take other life-saving actions. Survey responses of residents in Alabama and Mississippi were studied to determine if people were accurately able to recall a notable storm’s name when seeing an image of the storm’s track. Those who were able to identify the storm by its track were also asked if they could remember the storm’s maximum reported rainfall, maximum sustained winds, and storm surge at landfall. Results showed that there were statistically significant differences between the levels of accurate recall for different storms, with Hurricanes Katrina and Michael having the most correct responses. Regardless of the storm, most people struggled to remember geophysical hazards. The results of this study are important as they can inform broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers on forecast elements of the storm to better emphasize in future communication in comparison to the actual values from historical benchmark storms.