Spatial inequalities and non-linear association of continuous variables with mortality risk of liver transplantation in Iran: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Liver transplantation is the second most common solid organ transplant and the best option for liver failure. Of course, patient survival after transplantation depends on many risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial and non-linear effects of continuous risk factors on patient survival after liver transplantation. This retrospective cohort study (n = 3148) used data on liver transplantation in Iran (2004–2019). A generalized additive model with spatial effects and non-linear effects of age and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score variables by penalized spline was used. The majority of patients were male (63.3%), with a mean (SD) age of 42.65 (13.31) and a mean (SD) MELD score of 24.43 (6.72). The 1, 5, and 10-year survival rates were 88.2%, 84.6%, and 82.5% respectively. The non-linear effect showed a steeper slope of the age effect on the hazard of death after the age of 50 (p < 0.05), and the MELD score had a direct but non-linear relationship with the hazard of death (p < 0.05). In the spatial pattern, the provinces with a greater distance from the transplant center had significantly fewer old patients than other provinces. Also, more distant provinces with an older transplant age had higher post-transplant mortality rates. Our study showed that it is better to take age and MELD score into account in postoperative care. The spatial pattern of mortality risk reflects inequalities in access to transplantation and public health services after transplantation.