Spatial Dynamic Models for Assessing the Impact of Public Policies: The Case of Unified Educational Centers in the Periphery of São Paulo City

Abstract

Cities continuously evolve and dynamically organize themselves in unbalanced ways and by means of complex processes. Efforts to minimize or solve the problems resulting from spatial inequalities tend to fail when relying on traditional public policies. This work is committed to analyzing the context for implementing public policies and their impacts on the periphery of São Paulo, Brazil. São Paulo is a city characterized by territorial and social heterogeneity and inequality. The materialization of these public policies involves the construction of unified educational centers in peripheral neighborhoods that, in addition to education, offer sports, leisure, and entertainment activities not only to enrolled students but to the wider residents’ community. The adopted methodology was based on cellular automata models driven by remotely sensed images designed to investigate land use and land cover patterns in the surroundings of these educational centers before and after their construction. The achieved results demonstrate that the initial land use and land cover configurations have a great influence on the land use and land cover spatial arrangements after the construction of the educational centers. However, in all the test sites of this research, it was observed that these social infrastructure facilities favored the reproduction of real estate market logic, marked by socially exclusive differentiation and an uneven appreciation of the urban environment.

Simulation and Prediction of Urban Land Use Change Considering Multiple Classes and Transitions by Means of Random Change Allocation Algorithms

“…Values close to 0 generate more fragmented patches, while values close to the upper threshold will produce more compact patches. These values are heuristically set [53,54].…”