Spatial distribution of the relative risk of Zika virus disease in Colombia during the 2015–2016 epidemic from a Bayesian approach

Abstract

Objective:To determine the spatial distribution of the risk of Zika virus disease in each region of Colombia during the 2015-2016 epidemic.Methods: An ecological study was designed to estimate the risks for each Colombian region using first-order neighbors, covariate effects, and three adjacent periods of time (beginning, development, and end of the epidemic) to analyze the spatial distribution of the disease based on a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results: Spatial distribution of the estimated risks of Zika virus disease showed that it increased in a strip that crosses the central area of the country from west to east.Analysis of the three time periods showed greater risk of the disease in the central and southern zones-Arauca and Santander-where the increase in risk was four times higher during the peak phase compared with the initial phase of the outbreak. Conclusion:In the identified high-risk areas, integrated surveillance systems for Zika virus disease and its complications must be strengthened to provide up-to-date and accurate epidemiological information. This information would allow those involved in policy and decision making to identify new outbreaks and risk clusters, enabling more focused and accurate measures to target at-risk populations.

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to mapAedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

“…Rather than rely on raw measures of temperature, 24 studies (13.1%) instead used "temperature suitability" of Aedes mosquito vectors, which incorporates a variety of different methods of modelling the temperature constraints on the vector and virus dynamics that are most critical for virus transmission [45]. Six studies used bioclimatic variables that encompassed annual temperature and precipitation ranges, seasonal fluctuations, as well as extreme or constraining factors that capture broader biological patterns [29,[46][47][48][49][50]. Four studies additionally used indicators associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation as covariates [35,[51][52][53].…”

Zika epidemic in Colombia and environmental and sociodemographic contributors: an application of a space-time Markov switching model

“…SIVIGILA data have been used to study the spatio-temporal patterns of Aedes-borne diseases (namely dengue, Zika, and chikungunya) in Colombia. However, most studies focused on a given municipality and/or department 11,[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] , and only a few considered the data for the whole country 15,[26][27][28][29][30] . Among these, the studies applying statistical models [26][27][28] used data at the department level.…”

Secuenciación del SARS-CoV-2: la iniciativa tecnológica para fortalecer los sistemas de alerta temprana ante emergencias de salud pública en Latinoamérica y el Caribe

“…En Latinoamérica, la circulación simultánea de varios virus transmitidos por mosquitos (Arbovirus), entre ellos los relacionados con las recientes epidemias de dengue, Zika y chikungunya, representa una amenaza para la salud pública con implicaciones sociales y económicas de enorme importancia (11,12), lo que se suma a la presencia de otros virus emergentes, como el Mayaro y el Oropuche, cuyo impacto todavía no se ha estimado. Algunos países latinoamericanos han aportado muy buenos ejemplos sobre la utilidad de los datos genómicos de los arbovirus en la comprensión de fenómenos epidemiológicos de importancia en salud pública; entre ellos cabe destacar la posibilidad de determinar el retraso entre el momento de la aparición de un arbovirus y la primera detección en un área geográfica, la distribución espacial de las cepas de mayor virulencia, la transmisibilidad de vectores y el mayor riesgo de fracaso de eventuales vacunas (13).…”