Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Abstract

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co-occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office's long-term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co-localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land-use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land-uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co-occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land-use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

“…All of these ECEs can have widespread, severe and long-term impacts on ecosystem stability and biodiversity [e.g. [77][78][79][80] and provide little opportunity for adaptation or mitigation measures [27]. Moreover, ECEs are superimposed upon ongoing trends of increasing global temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, as well as changes in other environmental factors [81], which have the potential to adversely affect many organisms.…”

Diffuse water pollution during recent extreme wet-weather in the UK: Environmental damage costs and insight into the future?

“…Whilst we focussed on the implications of present day severe wet-weather for diffuse water pollution from agriculture, there remains a concomitant need for multiple stakeholders including farmers, farm advisors, water companies and environmental agencies to plan for so-called ‘compound events’ wherein severe wet and dry periods occur back to back. Such weather patterns have the potential to result in even more disproportionately severe impacts on the externalities arising from agroecosystems ( Johnstone et al, 2016 ; Dodd et al, 2020 ).…”

The impact of drought length and intensity on N cycling gene abundance, transcription and the size of an N2O hot moment from a temperate grassland soil

“…Because N 2 O is a potent greenhouse gas, understanding the dynamics of hot moments is important particularly in determining how changing weather patterns will affect soil N 2 O emissions. Dodd et al (2021) demonstrated that there has been a significant increase in the number of extreme weather events in the UK over the last 28 years, including compound events where drought has been followed by large amounts of rainfall. Moreover, it is predicted that the frequency of drought and large amounts of rainfall is going to increase in the UK due to climate change (Burke et al, 2010;Pendergrass and Knutti, 2018).…”