Spatial and Temporal Variations in West Virginia’s Precipitation, 1931–2000

Abstract

Este artículo contribuye a la investigación en la geografía del cambio climático al examinar los cambios temporales y espaciales en la precipitación en el estado de Virginia Occidental durante el período desde 1931 a 2000. Examinamos la magnitud y la frecuencia de los cambios en precipitación; la variación espacial de los cambios dentro del estado; y procesos, incluyendo urbanización, reforestación y ciclones tropicales, que pueden explicar los patrones espaciales observados. Las normas de la división climática del National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) desde 1931 a 2000 revelan más precipitación en todas las divisiones con la excepción de una en el estado. Los mayores aumentos ocurren en el sur y el este del estado durante de la época del otoño. Proponemos que cualquier cambio en precipitación que podría ocurrir debido al aumento de la población y la urbanización es mínimo. Descubrimos que los patrones espaciales de reforestación no son equiparables a la variación espacial del cambio de precipitación. Demostramos que los patrones espaciales en el aumento de precipitación debido a ciclones tropicales durante la época de otoño representan una cantidad significativa de los patrones espaciales observados del cambio en precipitación.

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“…In West Virginia, precipitation normals (30-year averages) for all physiographic divisions except for the central highlands have increased from 1931 to 2000. In the central climate division, fall precipitation has increased by 12.5%, decreased by 8% in the summer, and decreased 1.5% in winter and spring (Leonard and Law 2012). Leonard and Law (2012) also sought to understand how tropical cyclone patterns affected precipitation depth between two time periods (1931 -1960 and 1971 -2000).…”

“…Variability is likely attributable to complex topography. Leonard and Law (2012) reported that precipitation normals decreased annually by -0.7% and during the summer by -8.0 % for West Virginia's central climate division. time were revealed by the Decomposed ∆Q h at 5-year intervals (Figure 18).…”

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“…Southeastern U.S. hydroclimatological trends are highly variable within sub-regions and create complicated issues when attempting to downscale to finer spatial resolutions to apply regional trends to sub-regions to make informed policy and environmental decisions. Historical and future hydroclimatological trends throughout the northeast and southeast US have been investigated, and while conditions are highly variable, many studies provide supporting evidence of current and possibly future conditions (Burns et al 2007, Hayhoe et al 2007, Leonard and Law 2012, Manuel 2008.…”

“…The state of West Virginia provides a unique study area within the MAR with minimal anthropogenic influences compared to surrounding sub-regions. West Virginia's population has slowly grown by approximately 1,820 people year -1 from 1,729,205 in 1930 to 1,856,680 in 2010, while West Virginia's city populations have simultaneously decreased (2010, Leonard andLaw 2012). While West Virginia's population is low, 60% of the eastern U.S. population is within 6 hours of the state borders.…”

“…West Virginia's proximity to densely populated portions of the eastern U.S. while having minimal urbanization and landcover disturbance allows for more accurate response of climatic signals within the hydrologic record. Landcover across the state has succeeded towards forested conditions and between 1907 to 2002, forest cover increased from 9.1 million acres (61%) to 12.1 million acres (79%) of forests (Leonard andLaw 2012, Smith et al 2002). West Virginia is comprised of steep topography due to the bisecting mountain ranges and three physiographic provinces which include the Appalachian Plateaus, Valley and Ridge, and the Blue Ridge (Fenneman 1938, Wiley 2012, Wiley and Atkins 2010, Wiley et al 2000.…”