Spatial and Temporal Variation of b-Values in Southwest China

Zhang, Shenjian; Zhou, Shuhua

doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1044-7

Cited by 16 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Goebel et al, 2013), this may indicate that there is a high stress accumulation near the epicenters before each of the five earthquakes. This is consistent with the study finding that regional seismic activity is mainly concentrated in spatial locations with lower b-value (Nanjo et al, 2012;Zhang and Zhou, 2016;Nanjo and Yoshida, 2018;Jiang and Feng, 2021;Jiang et al, 2022;Sun et al, 2023). Whether an earthquake occurs mainly depends on the background stress that has already accumulated on the fault (Luo and Liu, 2018;Sun et al, 2020;Sun et al, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

A test on methods for Mc estimation and spatial-temporal distribution of b-value in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Gong,

Chen,

Gao

et al. 2024

Front. Earth Sci.

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Seismic b-value is one of the most important parameters for seismological research and seismic hazards assessment, while the accuracy of the b-value largely depended on the completeness of seismic catalog. This article compares eight methods for estimating the minimum magnitude of completeness (Mc). The results indicate that the modified maximum curvature method (MMAXC), exhibits greater stability and accuracy, closely approximating the standard Mc obtained from the synthetic seismic catalogs. We then calculate the b-value using the instrumental seismic catalog from 2000–2023 in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that the five major earthquakes occur in regions with lower b-value. In addition, the temporal evolution of b-value before and after major earthquakes exhibits a common trend of decreasing before earthquakes, and increasing after earthquakes, which may reflect the stress accumulation and release during earthquakes. Combining the results of maximum shear strain rate and b-value, we identify five regions characterized by low b-value and high shear strain rate, indicating a higher potential seismic hazard in the future.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

A test on methods for Mc estimation and spatial-temporal distribution of b-value in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Gong,

Chen,

Gao

et al. 2024

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…maximum differential stress), which possibly locates the region of the rupture initiation of the major Earthquake (Mori and Abercrombie 1997). In the same way, a temporal decrease of the bvalue is sometimes found before the occurrence of main shocks (El-Isa and Eaton 2014; Görgün2013; Görgün et al 2009;Wang 2016;Zhang and Zhou 2016), and a low b-value near active faults is interpreted as probable asperities (Sylvander1999; Tormann et al 2014). Then, a low b-value may be indicative of an increased probability of a large earthquake occurrence.…”

mentioning

confidence: 78%

Spatial and temporal variations in b-value of earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions and crustal stress in north part of the Zagros region

Mousavian

Mostafazadeh

2022

Preprint

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In this paper, high-resolution map of the Gutenberg–Richter b-value and differential stress field and stress drop are provided for the north part of the Zagros region. This region is important because more than 10 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6 occurred in this region in the past. In order to understand tectonic stress pattern of the region, the catalogue of seismicity between 1900 and 2020 was used (most of the events that could be used in this region) in order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of the b-value, which corresponds to the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes. We estimate the differential crustal stress from the b-value using a relationship published by Scholz (GeophytsRes Lett 42:1399–1402, 2015) and focused on estimating b-value first in the whole north of Zagros belt and then in 3 sub regions. For entire north of Zagros and sub regions, the average content of Mc is 4.0 (Based on Kijko-Sellevoll (Bull Seism Soc Am 79(3):645–654, 1989)) and content of b-value in this regions is around 1.03 to 1.12 and the b-value is gradually have lower value, from west to the East of Zagros. In all earlier studies, b-value was estimated for the entire of the Zagros but in this study, we estimated the b-value based on tectonic units of the region. In temporal variation of b-value, one minimum in the diagram of b-value in MFF region can be seen exactly before 12 Nov. 2017Ezgeleh earthquake (Mw=7.3) and another minimum in diagram is related to the 18 August 2014 Mormori earthquake (Mw=6.2). The stress drop was estimated from M0 for north part of the Zagros and compared this value in time period before and after Ezgele earthquake. The stress drop value before and after Ezgeleh earthquake, around the epicenter was changed between 0.024–0.03 before earthquake to 0.13–0.261 MPa after the earthquake respectively. Finally we are calculated the differential stress value in time period before and after Ezgele Earthquake, around the epicenter, and it is changed between 300–322 MPa before earthquake to 238–295 MPa after the earthquake respectively. Also it seems that stress transmitted from north part of the Zagros to the central part of it.

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“…Ogata proposed the hierarchical space-time point-process models (HIST-PPM), cubic B-spline expansions and the Bayesian method for estimation and interpolation of b values in space [33][34][35][50][51][52][53]. As it does not require allocation of an earthquake sample, it may have advantages in computing spatial b values, particularly in highly fractured regions with complex fault systems, such as Yunnan Province, China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based on b Value in Yunnan Province, China

Wang

Chang

Miao

et al. 2021

Entropy

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Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.

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Spatial and Temporal Variation of b-Values in Southwest China

Cited by 16 publications

References 28 publications

A test on methods for Mc estimation and spatial-temporal distribution of b-value in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

A test on methods for Mc estimation and spatial-temporal distribution of b-value in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Spatial and temporal variations in b-value of earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions and crustal stress in north part of the Zagros region

Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based on b Value in Yunnan Province, China

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