Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation extreme indices in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran for the last half-century

Abstract

Precipitation variability analysis, on different spatial and temporal scales, has been of great concern during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change by the scientific community. According to some recent studies, the Iranian territory has been experienced a precipitation variability, especially in the last 50 years, and the arid and semi-arid areas seem to be more affected. The present study aims to analyze precipitation extreme indices over a wide time interval and a wide area, detecting potential trends and assessing their significance. The investigation is based on a wide range of daily and multi-day precipitation statistics encompassing basic characteristics and heavy precipitation. Two different methods of trend analysis and statistical testing are applied, depending on the nature of the statistics. Linear regression is used for statistics with a continuous value range, and logistic regression is used for statistics with a discrete value range. The trends are calculated on annual and seasonal bases for the years 1951–2007. Statistical analysis of the database highlight that a clear trend signal is found with a high number of sites with a statistically significant trend. In winter, significant increases are found for all statistics related to precipitation strength and occurrence. In spring, statistically, significant increases are found only for the statistics related to heavy precipitation, whereas precipitation frequency and occurrence statistics show little systematic change. The trend signal is strongest in highlands and mountainous terrains. In autumn and summer, the heavy and basic precipitation statistics did not show statistically significant trends.