Spatial and temporal distribution of infectious disease epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the World Health Organisation Africa region, 2016–2018

Abstract

Background: Emerging and re-emerging diseases with pandemic potential continue to challenge fragile health systems in Africa, creating enormous human and economic toll. To provide evidence for the investment case for public health emergency preparedness, we analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the WHO African region between 2016 and 2018. Methods: We abstracted data from several sources, including: the WHO African Region's weekly bulletins on epidemics and emergencies, the WHO-Disease Outbreak News (DON) and the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Other sources were: the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) and the Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON). We included information on the time and location of the event, the number of cases and deaths and counterchecked the different data sources. Data analysis: We used bubble plots for temporal analysis and generated graphs and maps showing the frequency and distribution of each event. Based on the frequency of events, we categorised countries into three: Tier 1, 10 or more events, Tier 2, 5-9 events, and Tier 3, less than 5 or no event. Finally, we compared the event frequencies to a summary International Health Regulations (IHR) index generated from the IHR technical area scores of the 2018 annual reports. Results: Over 260 events were identified between 2016 and 2018. Forty-one countries (87%) had at least one epidemic between 2016 and 2018, and 21 of them (45%) had at least one epidemic annually. Twenty-two countries (47%) had disasters/humanitarian crises. Seven countries (the epicentres) experienced over 10 events and all of them had limited or developing IHR capacities. The top five causes of epidemics were: Cholera, Measles, Viral Haemorrhagic Diseases, Malaria and Meningitis.

COVID-19 threatens health systems in sub-Saharan Africa: the eye of the crocodile

“…respond adequately to an IHR hazard, such as COVID-19 (19), despite the fact that the region is perennially plagued with epidemics and pandemics (20). Is Africa prepared and equipped to deal with COVID-19?…”

Is Africa prepared for tackling the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. Lessons from past outbreaks, ongoing pan-African public health efforts, and implications for the future

“…A recent analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of infectious disease epidemics, disasters and other potential public health emergencies in the WHO Africa Region highlighted that 41 African countries (87% of the continent) had at least one epidemic, and 21 countries (45%) had at least one epidemic annually (Talisuna A et al, 2020 (WHO, 2020c).Thus, it is essential for African countries to take the lead, become proactive and prepare surveillance systems for the rapid detection of any imported cases of COVID-19, to prevent rapid spread as seen in China. The question arises, 'Is Africa prepared and equipped to deal with yet another outbreak of a highly infectious disease -COVID-19?…”

“…Africa needs to continue its upward trajectory of activities so as to align public health resources, scientific expertise and experience, and political commitment so that any future infectious disease outbreaks can be stopped before they become an epidemic in Africa. Africa needs more investments into ONE-HEALTH collaborative activities across the continent in order to meet the challenges of current and future public health threats (Kock R,et al 2019;Petersen E et al, 2019;Talisuna AO et al, 2020;Hui DS et al, 2020;Zumla A et al, 2016). A whole new young generation of enthusiastic, committed and dedicated African public health workers, epidemiologists, researchers, healthcare workers and laboratory personnel have emerged over the past 5 years, and they need to be supported by security of funding to build their careers and sustain their take forward their research and training portfolios.…”

A Comparative Study of Challenges and Strategic Management: Lessons Learned from SARS, MERS, HIV & Ebola Outbreaks

“…Investment for the development of healthcare systems, both mental and physical, should come in, as it will not only check the spread of this severe epidemic but also stop it from crossing national and international borders and communities. Though some organizations are interested in rebuilding health systems in West Africa, the global community must show commitment to building such health systems that are better prepared for the future [118]. For HIV, however, there has been considerable funding and research curated by major global health initiatives in public health research by organizations like WHO, GFATM, UNAIDS, etc.…”