Spatial and Temporal Characteristic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Subtype

Abstract

H5N8 HPAI is a highly infectious avian disease that now poses a serious threat and potential risk to poultry farming, wild birds, and public health. In this study, to investigate the seasonality and transmission directionality of global H5N8 HPAI, the spatial and temporal analysis of H5N8 HPAI was conducted using time series decomposition and directional distribution analysis. An ecological niche model was developed for H5N8 HPAI in poultry to identify areas at high risk of H5N8 HPAI in poultry and associated risk factors. The results indicated that three global pandemics of H5N8 HPAI emerged from 2014 to 2022, all showing a southeast–northwest distribution direction. H5N8 HPAI occurred more frequently in winter and less frequently in summer. The southwestern border region and the southeastern region of North America, the southern region of South America, most of Europe, the southern border region and the northern border region of Africa, and the southwestern region and the southeastern region of Asia provide the suitable environment for the occurrence of H5N8 HPAI in poultry. Chicken density, duck density, population density, bio1 (annual mean temperature), and land cover were considered important variables for the occurrence of H5N8 HPAI in poultry. This study can help optimize the use of resources and provide new information for policymakers to carry out prevention and control efforts.