Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010

Bajat, Branislav; Blagojević, Dragan; Kilibarda, Milorad; Luković, Jelena; Tošić, Ivana

doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1243-7

Cited by 55 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…When the EAO was in the positive phase, this depression moved towards the west of the UK and temperatures over Europe and Serbia were above normal. The results obtained in this study are in agreement with the Ta analysis for Serbia (Unkašević and Tošić, ; Bajat et al, ; Knežević et al, ). There is a statistically significant correlation between Tw and EAO for all gauging stations ( p < 0.05 ) (Table ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube, Serbia

Basarin

Lukić

Pavić

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/hyp.10863 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. TRENDS AND MULTI-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF WATER TEMPERATURES IN ABSTRACTThe relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta.Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradište) were analyzed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations.Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradište) were correlated with Tw variations over the period . Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long-term trends in the raw data, alogside the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue-Pilon's prewhitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series.Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05°C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis.Overall, the strongest correlations (p<0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time-scales.Keywords: Danube; water temperature; air temperature; trends; variability; Serbia.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. INTRODUCTIONTemperature is an important feature of flowing waters because it affects other physical properties and influences the chemical and biochemical reactions of lotic systems (Walling and Webb, 1992;Webb et al., 2008). The life-cycles of lotic biota are regulated by river temperature variations (Gore, 1992; Everall et al., 2015). Water temperature (Tw) also indirectly influences bulk density which causes thermal stratification in standing water bodies. In this way, temperature influences chemical and biochemical processes in the individual stratified layers (epilimnion and hypolimnion) (Pekarova et al., 2011). Changes in the thermal regime of river systems may result in the disruption of established patterns of synchrony between the aquatic communities (Woodward et al., 2010;Marković et al., 2013).Incomin...

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube, Serbia

Basarin

Lukić

Pavić

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Linear fit of the dataset for the maximum temperature shows an increasing trend for each of the seven stations in Serbia, for the period 1951-2010, which is in agreement with the results given by Bajat et al (2014). Figure 2a presents the maximum temperature time series for Vranje with statistically significant increasing trend (p value<0.0001 and Kendall's tau=0.034).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Gocić and Trajković (2014) were analyzing the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Serbia with the precipitation concentration index and performed the principal component analysis for the same time series. The spatial analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961-2010 was carried out by Bajat et al (2014) using the mean monthly data. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of linear trends using the least square method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity analysis of the air temperature and the precipitation time series in Serbia

Mimić

Mihailoviĉ

Kapor

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we have analyzed the time series of daily values for three meteorological elements, two continuous and a discontinuous one, i.e., the maximum and minimum air temperature and the precipitation. The analysis was done based on the observations from seven stations in Serbia from the period 1951-2010. The main aim of this paper was to quantify the complexity of the annual values for the mentioned time series and to calculate the rate of its change. For that purpose, we have used the sample entropy and the Kolmogorov complexity as the measures which can indicate the variability and irregularity of a given time series. Results obtained show that the maximum temperature has increasing trends in the given period which points out a warming, ranged in the interval 1-2°C. The increasing temperature indicates the higher internal energy of the atmosphere, changing the weather patterns, manifested in the time series. The Kolmogorov complexity of the maximum temperature time series has statistically significant increasing trends, while the sample entropy has increasing but statistically insignificant trend. The trends of complexity measures for the minimum temperature depend on the location. Both complexity measures for the precipitation time series have decreasing trends.

show abstract

“…Studies showed that the warming of the climate system is present in the Southeast Europe region. The annual and seasonal air temperature analyses in Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, and Greece showed pronounced and mostly significant positive trends in vast majority of areas in the second half of 20th and the beginning of 21st century (Ducić, et al, 2009;Ducić, et al, 2008;Bajat, et al, 2015;Branković, et al, 2013;Milošević, et al, 2013;Burić, et al, 2014;Mamara, et al, 2016). The overall positive trends in annual air temperatures are mainly caused by the high and statistically significant positive summer trends.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of air temperature trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Trbić¹,

Popov²,

Gnjato³

2017

Geogr Pannon

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The paper analyzes the air temperature characteristics in Bosnia and Herzegovina in order to identify recent trends in mean air temperature. Trends in annual, seasonal and monthly mean air temperatures during 1961-2015 periods were determined based on data from sixteen meteorological stations. MAKESENS procedure (Salmi, et al., 2002), which uses the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the nonparametric Sen's method, was applied on time series of annual, seasonal and monthly mean air temperatures to assess the trend magnitude and its statistical significance. Given the results, the warming trend is present all over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Significant positive trends in annual and summer temperatures were detected over the entire territory (p<0.01). Positive winter and spring trends are largely significant (p<0.01 or p<0.05), whereas autumn trends are low and insignificant. The highest increase was registered in June-August and December-January periods. In some areas, a low negative trend was present in September and November. A significant positive correlation between East-Atlantic pattern index and temperature was determined over the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina throughout the year. Winter and spring temperatures were also significantly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index and Arctic Oscillation index, respectively.

show abstract

Spatial analysis of the temperature trends in Serbia during the period 1961–2010

Cited by 55 publications

References 35 publications

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube, Serbia

Trends and multi‐annual variability of water temperatures in the river Danube, Serbia

Complexity analysis of the air temperature and the precipitation time series in Serbia

Analysis of air temperature trends in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About