Spatial analysis of the reliability of transport networks subject to rainfall‐induced landslides

Abstract

Abstract:A methodology is developed to examine the susceptibility of a transport system to rainfall-induced landslides and is demonstrated for part of the UK rail network with regard to the potential changes that might occur with climate change. A mathematical model is given for the system failure and a statistical model is formulated for the joint distribution of rainfall at different points along the railway line. These are used to investigate the response of earth embankments along the railway line to current and future climate scenarios, including the effects of rainfall and evapotranspiration on slope hydrology and stability. It is shown that, for the system of clay embankments in question, the moisture profile through the embankment at the end of the summer months has a critical effect on system stability, both in terms of expected failure timing and probability of failure. Further, it is seen that, with changing climate, the system stability is likely to increase unless the degradation of embankment material properties, another potential effect of changed climate, is taken into account. The spatial distribution of failures is also likely to change.

Climate-change impacts on long-term performance of slopes

“…Management strategies to accommodate changes in slope behaviour due to climate change have been investigated by Manning et al 24 who used a process-based model of slope hydrology for the analysis of the stability of a series system of slopes subject to spatially correlated rainfall in present and future climate scenarios. They demonstrated that, for the rail line between London and Bristol, slope stability is dependent on long-term accumulated rainfall, and that the probability and likely timing of network failure, and the spatial distribution of failure locations, are critically dependent on slope moisture profile at the end of the summer.…”

“…There is anecdotal evidence from Network Rail maintenance engineers that after a hot dry summer, failures occurred at much lower rainfall levels than otherwise. 24 Another key influence on the water within slopes (and hence their engineering behaviour) is vegetation, with beneficial effects including root reinforcement, prevention of positive pore water pressure build up and surcharging at the base of the slope. However, serious detrimental effects include loading the upper part of the slope, uprooting or overturning.…”

Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

“…Ideally, it should be estimated with an acceptable degree of credibility. Additionally, the potential for increased risk of rainfall (Manning et al 2008;Mahmood et al 2013) or environmental change impacts raises more fundamental questions concerning the preparedness of engineers to cope with increased exposure to landslide events. The probabilisticbased solution for the slope instability analysis offers a rational means of accommodating inherent uncertainty in nature and a practical way to assess the potential safety limits under various loading conditions (Duncan 2000;Lacasse and Nadim 2007).…”

Modeling and simulation of the effects of landslide on circulation of transports on the mountain roads

“…Mengistu et al [17] provided a framework for development and execution of parallel applications such as multi-agent based simulation (MABS) in large scale. In the work of Manning et al [15], a mathematical model is given for the system failure and a statistical model is formulated for the joint distribution of rainfall at different points along the railway line. Perumalla [22] designed a simulator with memory and speed efficiency as the goals from the outset, and, specifically, scalability via parallel execution.…”