Spatial Analysis of Climate Driver Impacts on Sub-Saharan African Migration Patterns in Tanzania

Abstract

Environmental problems resulting from climate change have generated negative impacts on climate-sensitive sectors of African economies. Coping with adverse situations, individuals and households adopt several strategies, including rural-urban migration. Previous literature has investigated the use of migration as a coping strategy to environmental factors. However, specific empirical assessment of links between migration and climatic factors with emphasis on spatial perspectives is not well studied. Accordingly, this study focuses on climatic driver influences on migration from statistical and spatial perspectives using logistic regression and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We combined secondary data sets collected by the World Bank SLMS nationwide household surveys with geo-referenced sub-villages and historical gridded rainfall and temperature data. Results suggest a significant positive relationship between long-run precipitation and migration, while long-run temperature was statistically inconsequential. Results also suggest spatial patterns and climate change drivers are critical in understanding the migration determinants in Tanzania.