Spatial analysis of changes and anomalies of intense rainfalls in Hungary

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events can trigger flash flood, mass movements, pluvial flood and accelerated soil erosion. As soil structures are highly degraded due to intensive improper cultivation water infiltration can considerably decrease during the vegetation period. Additional changes in canopy coverage on the soil surface cause relevant variability in infiltration and hence vulnerability against runoff related disasters. Most researchers agree that the frequency of extreme precipitations increases, however, in the Carpathian Basin the uncertainties are quite high. This study aims to compare daily maximum mean precipitation amounts (MMPA) predicted by the Goda-method for June and August as the most probable months of extremities. We used the CarpatClim database as input and predicted MMPAs for two periods, 1960-1985 and 1986-2010. The Goda-method uses monthly data and calculates daily results on given probability. A general increase was found between the first and second half of the period regarding daily maximum precipitation amount in both investigated months. For August the 1-day precipitation amount increased from 56.1 mm to 61.8 mm, whereas 6-days amount from 93.8 mm to 103.2 mm at 1 per cent probability (r = 0.53; p < 0.001). Beyond this change, relevant spatial differences were found. Comparing the macro regions plains had lower increase compared to the mountains, whereas the highest increase was in the Transdanubian Hills (TH). The most endangered location is the southern part of the Transdanubian Hills where parallel with the intensive increase in MMPA both in June and August the environmental conditions such as loose parent material and the high percentage of crop fields also emphasize the potential hazard.

Geospatial analysis of drought tendencies in the Carpathians as reflected in a 50-year time series

“…The number of intensive rainfalls and the decrease of total days of precipitation can result in an unbalanced water regime, flash floods and intensive erosion (Pirkhoffer, E. et al 2009;Czigány, Sz. et al 2010Szabó, J. et al 2015;Jakab, G. et al 2019). Regions of higher temperature and evapotranspiration and lower precipitation are endangered by wind erosion.…”

Trends in extreme precipitation events (SW Hungary) based on a high-density monitoring network

“…Climate change is not only associated with higher temperatures but also involves the changes of the temporal and spatial pattern of precipitation and particularly the dynamics of severe weather phenomena, including extreme precipitation events (EPE) (Lovino, M. et al 2014;Grazzini, F. et al 2019;Jakab, G. et al 2019;Balatonyi, L. et al 2022). EPEs, defined as daily precipitation totals higher than 20 mm by the Hungarian Meteorologi-cal Services (OMSZ), are commonly associated with low pressure systems of either Atlantic or Mediterranean origin (Maheras, P. et al 2018).…”

Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over the Western Balkan countries and its links with the atmospheric circulation patterns

“…Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation becomes an increasingly important issue of climate change as the existing differences are expected to increase in the future. Climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) project robust differences in regional precipitation characteristics in frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation due to global warming; i.e., parallel with the fewer but intense rainfall events it also means that drought frequency and intensity also increases in several regions (Jakab et al, 2019;Kertész, 2016;. Accordingly, it is crucial to understand the historical variability of precipitation and try to distinguish the changes from natural pattern on different spatial scales in order to incorporate them into climate models for the future.…”