Spatial analysis and epidemiological profile of visceral leishmaniasis, northeastern Brazil: A cross-sectional study

Machado, Carolina Angélica Libório; Sevá, Anaiá da Paixão; Dantas‐Torres, Filipe; Horta, Maurício Cláudio

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105520

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…It was observed that VL was concentrated in the western region of the state, HIV infection was concentrated on the coast, and the central region had a low incidence of both. VL has a history of high incidence in the Northeast interior due to climatic and socioeconomic factors 7,25 . The areas with the highest exposure to HIV in the Northeast are located close to the coast and are related to sexual transmission, with evidence of being enhanced by "sex tourism."…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological profile and lethality of visceral leishmaniasis/human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil

Machado

Sevá

Silva

et al. 2021

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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INTRODUCTION: The association of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a concern worldwide, and this co-infection is linked to increased lethality. The Northeast is the region that mostly reports cases of VL in Brazil. The knowledge of risk factors associated with VL/HIV co-infection and its impact on lethality is extremely important. METHODS: The present study analyzed the epidemiologic features of cases with VL/HIV co-infection in the state of Pernambuco, Northeast of Brazil, from 2014 to 2018. RESULTS: There were 858 and 11,514 reported cases of VL and HIV infection, respectively. The average incidences of VL and HIV infection were 1.82 and 24.4/100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Of all reported cases of VL, 4.9% (42/858) also had HIV infection. There was an inverse spatial association between VL and HIV infection incidences. The lethality rates of VL, HIV infection, and co-infection were 9.9%, 26.1%, and 16.6%, respectively. Most of the patients were males and lived in urban areas. The cases of VL mostly occurred in children aged below 10 years, whereas the cases of HIV infection and VL/HIV co-infection were primarily observed in adults between 20 years and 39 years old. CONCLUSIONS: We defined the profile and areas with most cases of co-infection and found that the lethality of VL with co-infection increased in the current period. These findings contribute to applying efforts with a greater focus in these identified populations to prevent future deaths.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological profile and lethality of visceral leishmaniasis/human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil

Machado

Sevá

Silva

et al. 2021

Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop.

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“…Favorable climate (e.g., low altitude and high diurnal range in temperature; [9]), proximity to major infrastructure projects (e.g., gas pipelines and highways; [10]), and deforestation [11] have been shown to be important determinants of VL in endemic areas in the country. In the northeast region of Brazil, in particular, VL has been shown to be more prevalent in the Cerrado and Amazonian biomes [8]. Similarly, a comparison of several ecosystems in the North region of Brazil revealed that there was higher prevalence of VL in domestic dogs in the Amazonian biome [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Between 2001 and 2017, VL cases in Brazil have been distributed mainly in the northeast, southeast, and midwest regions of the country [6], with the northeast region having the highest number of cases of VL [7,8]. Favorable climate (e.g., low altitude and high diurnal range in temperature; [9]), proximity to major infrastructure projects (e.g., gas pipelines and highways; [10]), and deforestation [11] have been shown to be important determinants of VL in endemic areas in the country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns and drivers of Human Visceral Leishmaniasis in Pernambuco (Brazil) from 2007 to 2018

et al. 2023

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the second most common protozoosis that affects people around the world. The aim of this study is to understand how environmental and socioeconomic factors, as well as VL control and surveillance interventions, influence the spread and detection of VL cases in Pernambuco state (Brazil). A novel model was developed to analyze cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, enabling the quantification of the association of these variables with two processes: the probability of “invasion” (emergence of new cases) at municipalities by VL, and the probability of detecting cases not reported in municipalities that have already been invaded. Pernambuco state identified 1,410 cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, with an average of 128 cases per year and average incidence of 1.28/100 thousand people. These cases were distributed in 77.1% (142/184) of the municipalities, and 54.8% (773/1,410) of them were autochthonous. Our model reveals that the proportion of agriculture was positively associated with VL invasion probability. We also find that municipalities that are closer to notification centers and/or that have received technical training and support tend to have higher detection rates of VL cases. Taken together, these results suggest that a municipality with almost no agriculture and that received technical training, located close to a notification center, is unlikely to be invaded if no cases have ever been detected. On the other hand, a municipality that is far from the notification center, with no technical training, with a large agricultural area might have already been invaded but the surveillance system might have routinely failed to detect VL cases due to low detection probability. By disentangling the processes of invasion and detection, we were able to generate insights that are likely to be useful for the strategic allocation of VL prevention and control interventions.

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“…In the last years, there has been confirmation of an increase in the number of cities that report cases in the South and Southeast. Nevertheless, the Northeast stands out as the region with the largest number of registered cases, particularly in Bahia, Ceará, Piauí and Maranhão States (Costa et al, 2020;Machado et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

et al. 2024

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

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Spatial analysis and epidemiological profile of visceral leishmaniasis, northeastern Brazil: A cross-sectional study

Cited by 13 publications

References 26 publications

Epidemiological profile and lethality of visceral leishmaniasis/human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil

Epidemiological profile and lethality of visceral leishmaniasis/human immunodeficiency virus co-infection in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil

Patterns and drivers of Human Visceral Leishmaniasis in Pernambuco (Brazil) from 2007 to 2018

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

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