Sparse evidence for selection on phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature

Arnold, Pieter A.; Nicotra, Adrienne B.; Kruuk, Loeske E. B.

doi:10.1098/rstb.2018.0185

Cited by 98 publications

(137 citation statements)

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“…If the trait in question is a component of fitness that may vary across the environment, this covariance can even be interpreted as a test of costs or benefits of plasticity in the fitness component. A useful extension, which allows an analysis of selection on plasticity, is to use a bivariate model combining a random regression of the focal trait with a basic model of measures of individual fitness: here, the covariance between trait slopes and individual fitness represents selection on plasticity (Arnold et al ., in press; for empirical examples see Hayward et al ., ; Boulton et al ., ). Furthermore, where plasticity in multiple traits has been measured, a multivariate mixed model can also be used to analyse plastic responses in several traits, and will return estimates of covariances between the different traits in both intercepts and slopes (e.g.…”

Section: Random Regression Mixed Model Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

2019

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Summary Plant biology is experiencing a renewed interest in the mechanistic underpinnings and evolution of phenotypic plasticity that calls for a re‐evaluation of how we analyse phenotypic responses to a rapidly changing climate. We suggest that dissecting plant plasticity in response to increasing temperature needs an approach that can represent plasticity over multiple environments, and considers both population‐level responses and the variation between genotypes in their response. Here, we outline how a random regression mixed model framework can be applied to plastic traits that show linear or nonlinear responses to temperature. Random regressions provide a powerful and efficient means of characterising plasticity and its variation. Although they have been used widely in other fields, they have only recently been implemented in plant evolutionary ecology. We outline their structure and provide an example tutorial of their implementation.

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Section: Random Regression Mixed Model Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

2019

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“…Within-individual plasticity can be advantageous since it can allow individuals to respond immediately to ongoing environmental heterogeneity (Houston & McNamara, 1992), for example adapting condition-dependent decision-making to the current conditions. However plasticity is not always adaptive (Arnold, Nicotra, & Kruuk, 2019;Gotthard & Nylin, 1995): changes in phenotype may simply reflect physiological constraints or resource limitation, and flexibility may also come at a cost (DeWitt, Sih, & Wilson, 1998). Nevertheless, whether or not average plasticity is adaptive, variation in reaction norms would imply the potential for selection on plasticity.…”

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confidence: 99%

Consistent within‐individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Froy

Martin

Stopher

et al. 2019

J of Evolutionary Biology

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Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36‐year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within‐ versus between‐individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within‐individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population‐level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no “IxE” interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within‐individual plasticity to population‐level responses to climate change.

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“…This study follows the one-step approach demonstrated by Arnold et al (2019), using a bivariate generalized linear mixed model to assess selection pressures on LDBD and CSLD reaction norms. We illustrate the approach here with the LDBD reaction norm.…”

Section: Assessing Selection Pressures On Reaction Normsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nussey et al, 2005). The latter is essentially stats-on-stats, where statistical errors in Step 1 would be carried over to Step 2 (Arnold et al, 2019). In addition, to perform Step 2, one can either utilize estimates from a simple linear regression, or best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) of random effects from mixed models in Step (Brommer et al, 2012).…”

Section: Bivariate Random Regression Models To Estimate Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To our knowledge, this is the first study on laying-date-budburst-date correlation using individually coupled tree and nest box data. We used an advanced but underused one-step statistical approach (Arnold et al, 2019) to assess selection on plasticity. We tested three hypotheses: 1) that there is among-individual variance in LDBD and CSLD reaction norms properties (intercept and slope), allowing the possibility for an evolutionary response; 2) that there is selection on these reaction norm properties; and 3) that variances and selection pressures differ between LDBD and CSLD reaction norms.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Selection on reproductive plasticity in a wild population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus

Chik¹,

Estrada²,

Wang³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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In the plant-insect-insectivorous-bird system, changing climates can result in mis-timing in bird reproduction, potentially impacting chick survival. To adapt to earlier prey emergence, birds can make use of phenotypic plasticity, which can be characterized by reaction norms. Despite gaining focus in research, studies on avian reproductive reaction norms as traits are scarce, particularly on laying-date-budburst-date and clutch-size-laying-date reaction norms. Here we examined the possibility of evolution of these two reaction norms from a quantitative genetics viewpoint, and tested whether 1) there is among-individual variance in reaction norms properties (intercept and slope); 2) there is selection on these reaction norm properties; and 3) variances and selection pressures differ between the two reaction norms. Data of oak (genus Quercus) budburst and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) reproduction were collected from a wild population for 18 years. We used bivariate random regression models with a Bayesian approach to test for among-individual variance in reaction norm properties and their covariance with fitness. Individuals significantly differed in intercepts and slopes of both laying-date-budburst-date and clutch-size-laying-date reaction norms, and directional selection was present for an earlier laying date and a larger clutch size, but not on either plasticity. Results suggested that variation in reaction norm properties can be attributed to genetic and environmental effects, and that stabilizing selection on plasticity could be tested as a next step. This study compliments previous research on the evolution of reaction norms and helps shed light on their genetic structure, the context of their selection, and their mediation in birds.

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Sparse evidence for selection on phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature

Abstract: One contribution of 13 to a theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Cited by 98 publications

References 110 publications

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

Consistent within‐individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Selection on reproductive plasticity in a wild population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus

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