Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Auroral Precipitation and High‐Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics

Abstract

As part of its International Capabilities Assessment effort, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center initiated several working teams, one of which is focused on the validation of models and methods for determining auroral electrodynamic parameters, including particle precipitation, conductivities, electric fields, neutral density and winds, currents, Joule heating, auroral boundaries, and ion outflow. Auroral electrodynamic properties are needed as input to space weather models, to test and validate the accuracy of physical models, and to provide needed information for space weather customers and researchers. The working team developed a process for validating auroral electrodynamic quantities that begins with the selection of a set of events, followed by construction of ground truth databases using all available data and assimilative data analysis techniques. Using optimized, predefined metrics, the ground truth data for selected events can be used to assess model performance and improvement over time. The availability of global observations and sophisticated data assimilation techniques provides the means to create accurate ground truth databases routinely and accurately.

Hybrid-Vlasov simulation of auroral proton precipitation in the cusps: Comparison of northward and southward interplanetary magnetic field driving

“…This work will contribute to improving the understanding of auroral precipitation thanks to global kinetic magnetospheric models, whose continued development is a key endeavour for space weather understanding (Robinson et al, 2019;Heelis & Maute, 2020). While the current results are obtained in 2D and at a few locations within the cusp region, future Vlasiator simulations will aim at studying particle precipitation in 3D and within each cell of the simulation domain, thus allowing a more detailed description of the spatial variability and temporal dynamics of the auroral oval during geomagnetic events.…”

“…Yet, it remains particularly challenging to model it using first-principle numerical codes and to predict its energy spectrum and flux under a given set of solar wind parameters. Particle precipitation predominantly takes place in the auroral ovals and hence particularly affects the high latitudes, both on the dayside and on the nightside, for which not only observations but also numerical simulations are needed to improve space weather forecasting (Robinson et al, 2019;Heelis & Maute, 2020).…”

The Case for Improving the Robinson Formulas

“…The magnitude and spatial pattern of the ionospheric conductance is a vital component of this mutual dependence. Robinson et al (2019) discussed the impact of ionospheric 10.1029/2020JA028332…”

“…The magnitude and spatial pattern of the ionospheric conductance is a vital component of this mutual dependence. Robinson et al (2019) discussed the impact of ionospheric conductance on various space weather phenomena as well as metrics requirements for a robust data‐model comparison of this quantity. Very recently, Öztürk et al (2020) listed the main components of the ongoing Ionospheric Conductance Challenge across the research community.…”

The International Community Coordinated Modeling Center Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Overview of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Activities

“…With regard to the high latitude I/T system, it needs to be pointed out that this highly variable environment is not the prime focus of our current validation assessment efforts. However, the special challenges of model assessment in the auroral ionosphere is the topic of a separate working group within the international effort and described in a companion paper by Robinson et al ().…”