Space–time prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides through a combined probabilistic/deterministic approach, optimized for initial water table conditions

Grelle, G.; Soriano, Marcella; Revellino, Paola; Guerriero, Luigi; Anderson, M. G.; Diambra, Andrea; Fiorillo, Francesco; Esposito, Libera; Diodato, Nazzareno; Guadagno, Francesco M.

doi:10.1007/s10064-013-0546-8

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…where K s is the saturated hydraulic conductivity, H the average soil thickness (80 cm) and S y the specific yield (Grelle et al, 2014). If we consider that the investigated soil can be classified as loamy sand, the specific yield is assumed to be equal to 0.34, on the basis of typical values given by Johnson (1967) (also reported in Loheide II et al, 2005) for each soil textural class.…”

Section: Back Analysis Of the 1 October 2009 Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)

Schilirò

Esposito

Mugnozza

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are a widespread phenomenon that frequently causes substantial damage to property, as well as numerous casualties. In recent years a wide range of physically based models have been developed to analyze the triggering process of these events. Specifically, in this paper we propose an approach for the evaluation of different shallow landslide-triggering scenarios by means of the TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based slope stability) numerical model. For the validation of the model, a back analysis of the landslide event that occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on 1 October 2009 was performed, by using different methods and techniques for the definition of the input parameters. After evaluating the reliability of the model through comparison with the 2009 landslide inventory, different triggering scenarios were defined using rainfall values derived from the rainfall probability curves, reconstructed on the basis of daily and hourly historical rainfall data. The results emphasize how these phenomena are likely to occur in the area, given that even short-duration (1-3 h) rainfall events with a relatively low return period (e.g., 10-20 years) can trigger numerous slope failures. Furthermore, for the same rainfall amount, the daily simulations underestimate the instability conditions. The high susceptibility of this area to shallow landslides is testified by the high number of landslide/flood events that have occurred in the past and are summarized in this paper by means of archival research. Considering the main features of the proposed approach, the authors suggest that this methodology could be applied to different areas, even for the development of landslide early warning systems.

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Section: Back Analysis Of the 1 October 2009 Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)

Schilirò

Esposito

Mugnozza

2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This value approximates the area of the landslides that occurred in association with this rainfall event (0.17 km 2 ). To evaluate the result, the "precision index" (PI) and "accuracy index" (AI) were induced (Grelle et al, 2014). The first index is the precision of the total analysis and the second index describes the accuracy of the analysis.…”

Section: Model Application To a Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simplified physically based coupled rainfall threshold model for triggering landslides

Yu-ming

Lan

Gao

et al. 2015

Engineering Geology

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A number of rainfall threshold models for triggering landslides have been developed in either empirical or physical manner. The objective of an empirical rainfall threshold model is to establish a relationship between rainfall intensity and duration, which is a line on a log-log diagram, although the mechanism of the relationship following the power law is not yet well understood. The sufficiency of rainfall and landslide data is also a significant concern for empirical models. A simplified physically based rainfall threshold model is developed by coupling the Mohr-Coulomb law and Darcy's law based on the assumptions that the slope has an infinite length and that discrete water diffusion is physically based. The power-law mechanism for the relationship between rainfall intensity and duration for the initiation of a landslide is investigated using this physically based model. The rainfall threshold calculated with the model shows that the threshold follows the power law for short rainfall durations whereas it gradually tends towards a constant value for long rainfall durations. Case studies have shown that a plausible threshold for regions that lack sufficient landslide and rainfall data can be obtained via the model. The model is also applied to cases which occurred in regions geologically typical of Fujian Province, southeast China. The landslide distribution predicted by our model accords with the interpretation of high resolution satellite imagery, and this suggests that the proposed physically based model also effectively determines rainfall thresholds for triggering regional landslides.

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“…Different types of models were developed to analyse the triggering times and locations of shallow landslides according to the following aspects: the development of positive pore water pressures in saturated soils (Montgomery and Dietrich, 1994;Baum et al, 2002), the change in the soil's pore water pressure Rossi et al, 2013) or soil saturation (Montrasio and Valentino, 2008) linked to rainfall intensity and duration; the possibility of modelling the size and depth of shallow landslides at the basin and local scale , the connections between different points of a slope or a basin that influence the soil's hydrological behaviour and the development of unstable conditions (Lanni et al, 2012), and the possibility of modelling the triggering conditions of shallow failures based on the natural variability of geotechnical and hydrological soil features through a probabilistic approach (Grelle et al, 2014;Mergili et al, 2014;Raia et al, 2014). Furthermore, physically based models were used to determine the rainfall thresholds for the timing and localization of shallow landslides at the local and regional scale (Salciarini et al, 2006(Salciarini et al, , 2008Godt et al, 2008a, b;Papa et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This choice is linked to the hypothesis that geotechnical and hydrological properties have spatial variations due to the spatial distribution of the bedrock materials from which the soils are derived. More rarely, the mapping unit of the soils is considered according to a pedological classification of the soil deposits (Meisina and Scarabelli, 2007), or these units are defined as engineering-geological or litho-technical units based on the main geotechnical and mechanical properties of the soils in an independent way with respect to the geology of the bedrock (Meisina, 2006;Grelle et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS

Bordoni

Meisina

Valentino

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are common phenomena in many parts of the world, affecting cultivation and infrastructure and sometimes causing human losses. Assessing the triggering zones of shallow landslides is fundamental for land planning at different scales. This work defines a reliable methodology to extend a slope stability analysis from the site-specific to local scale by using a wellestablished physically based model (TRIGRS-unsaturated). The model is initially applied to a sample slope and then to the surrounding 13.4 km 2 area in Oltrepò Pavese (northern Italy). To obtain more reliable input data for the model, longterm hydro-meteorological monitoring has been carried out at the sample slope, which has been assumed to be representative of the study area. Field measurements identified the triggering mechanism of shallow failures and were used to verify the reliability of the model to obtain pore water pressure trends consistent with those measured during the monitoring activity. In this way, more reliable trends have been modelled for past landslide events, such as the April 2009 event that was assumed as a benchmark. The assessment of shallow landslide triggering zones obtained using TRIGRSunsaturated for the benchmark event appears good for both the monitored slope and the whole study area, with better results when a pedological instead of geological zoning is considered at the regional scale. The sensitivity analyses of the influence of the soil input data show that the mean values of the soil properties give the best results in terms of the ratio between the true positive and false positive rates. The scheme followed in this work allows us to obtain better results in the assessment of shallow landslide triggering areas in terms of the reduction in the overestimation of unstable zones with respect to other distributed models applied in the past.

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Space–time prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides through a combined probabilistic/deterministic approach, optimized for initial water table conditions

Cited by 40 publications

References 39 publications

Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)

Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: an example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)

A simplified physically based coupled rainfall threshold model for triggering landslides

Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS

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