Space-time clustering analysis performance of an aggregated dataset: The case of wildfires in Portugal

Pereira, Mário; Caramelo, Liliana; Orozco, Carmen Vega; Costa, Ricardo; Tonini, Marj

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.05.016

Cited by 50 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Spatial patterns of burnt area and number of fires density on the basis of NUTS II regions for all fires (Fig. 3a) are in very good agreement with results obtained in previous studies, even with those using different fire datasets and study periods Pereira et al, 2015Pereira et al, , 2011. This suggest that the study period may be sufficiently long to capture main characteristics of the fire incidence's spatial distribution and, therefore, be representative of the fire regime.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…In the previously mentioned studies, this pattern was associated with the different characteristics of northern and southern parts of Continental Portugal (Figs. 1 and 2) respecting to the type of climate, topography, river network/water availability and, consequently, vegetation cover and land use Pereira et al, 2011Pereira et al, , 2015. However, spatial patterns for negligent and intentional wildfires are slightly different (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…For example, Pereira et al (2015) found that, when fire size increase, there is a eastward displacement of the fire events, a decrease of fire and population densities as well as a predominantly rural land use. They found that fire clusters centred in the coastal areas clearly present higher pd and higher fraction of TBA in Artificial surfaces land cover types while clusters located in the interior present lower pd, higher mean h, slightly lower mean s and higher fraction of BA in Forest, semi natural and Agricultural areas land cover types.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: Spatial distribution characterization

Parente

Pereira

Amraoui

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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In the European context, Portugal is the country with the highest number of wildfires and the second with more burnt area. The vast majority of these events are of human origin, whether caused by accident, negligence or arson, reason why it is particularly important to know the regime of these wildfires for forest and wildfire management activities. The study focuses on the most recent years of 2001-2014, when wildfire ignition's coordinates are known, and aims to identify and characterize the wildfire incidence spatial patterns of variability as well as their main drivers. After grouping wildfires with human cause into negligent and intentional, we studied their spatial distribution in terms of normalized number of wildfires (NNF) and burnt area (NBA) in the five Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics II regions of mainland Portugal. Results disclose an uneven spatial distribution of the fire incidence, characterized by a south-north gradient, much higher values in Norte region and more evident for intentional than for negligent wildfires. Human and biophysical drivers strongly influence NNF and NBA, at regional and national scales. Distribution patterns at regional scale, for negligent and intentional wildfires are quite different from entire mainland and all wildfires. Drivers' influence is higher for intentional than for negligent wildfires, for southern than for northern regions and for NBA than for NNF. The leading drivers of NNF are distance to roads (d) population density (pd) and altitude (h) while of NBA are h, d, slope and pd, and this influence is higher for intentional than for negligent wildfires.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: Spatial distribution characterization

Parente

Pereira

Amraoui

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Some authors prefer to use relative burnt area (BA) thresholds [25][26][27][28] but most of the definitions are based on absolute quantitative thresholds which can change in the course of time, as well as with the geographic area of reference [28,29]. In Europe, thresholds for LFs that have been proposed range from ≥ 100 ha (e.g., [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]) to ≥ 1000 ha [38]. In other regions in the world, the threshold ranges from the minimum values of ≥ 20 ha in Arizona (U.S.) [39], to 1000 ha in Australia [40], to 4950 ha in Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario [41] and to 40,000 ha in the Western United States [42].…”

Section: Large Very Large and Extremely Large Firesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts

Tedim

Leone

Amraoui

et al. 2018

Fire

306

207

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Every year worldwide some extraordinary wildfires occur, overwhelming suppression capabilities, causing substantial damages, and often resulting in fatalities. Given their increasing frequency, there is a debate about how to address these wildfires with significant social impacts, but there is no agreement upon terminology to describe them. The concept of extreme wildfire event (EWE) has emerged to bring some coherence on this kind of events. It is increasingly used, often as a synonym of other terms related to wildfires of high intensity and size, but its definition remains elusive. The goal of this paper is to go beyond drawing on distinct disciplinary perspectives to develop a holistic view of EWE as a social-ecological phenomenon. Based on literature review and using a transdisciplinary approach, this paper proposes a definition of EWE as a process and an outcome. Considering the lack of a consistent "scale of gravity" to leverage extreme wildfire events such as in natural hazards (e.g., tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes) we present a proposal of wildfire classification with seven categories based on measurable fire spread and behavior parameters and suppression difficulty. The categories 5 to 7 are labeled as EWE.

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“…Tagus River divides the country into two regions with approximately similar area but very different in terms of several biophysical and human drivers ( Fig. 2) Pereira et al, 2015). The north region is characterized by a temperate climate ,with dry and warm summer (Kottek et al, 2006;Peel et al, 2007) 35 of north's area is covered by forests and scrublands, 40% is used for agriculture and about 5% is occupied by artificial surfaces (Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Global assessment of land cover changes and rural-urban interface in Portugal

Tonini¹,

Parente²,

Pereira³

2017

Preprint

Self Cite

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Abstract. The wildland-/rural-urban interface (WUI/RUI) is a particularly important aspect of the fire regime. In Mediterranean basin most of the fires in this pyro region are caused by humans and the risk and consequences are particularly high due to the 10 close proximity to population, human infrastructures and urban areas. Population increase, urban growth and the rapid changes in land use incurred in Europe over the last 30 years has been unprecedented, especially nearby the metropolitan areas, and some of these trends are expected to continue. Associated to high socioeconomic development, Portugal experienced in the last decades significant land cover/land use changes (LCLUC), population dynamics and demographic trends in response to migration, rural abandonment, and ageing of rural population. This study aims to assess the evolution of RUI in Portugal, from 1990 to 2012, based 15 on LCLUC providing also a quantitative characterization of forest fires dynamics in relation to the burnt area. Obtained results disclose important LCLUC which spatial distribution is far from uniform within the territory. A significant increase in artificial surfaces is registered nearby the main metropolitan communities of the northwest and littoral-central and southern regions, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land nearby the inland urban areas leads to an increase of uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas. Within agricultural areas, heterogeneous patches suffered the greatest changes and are the main contributors to the increase 20 of urban areas. Moreover these are among the LCLU classes with higher burnt area, reasons why heterogeneous agricultural areas have been included in the definition of RUI. Finally, the mapped RUI's area, burnt area and burnt area within RUI allow to conclude that, form 1990 to 2012 in Portugal, RUI increased more than two thirds and total burnt area decreased one third. Nevertheless, burnt area within RUI doubled, which emphasize the significance of RUI for land and fire managers. This research provides a first quantitative global assessment of RUI in Portugal and presents an innovative analysis on the impact of land use changes on burnt 25 areas.

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Space-time clustering analysis performance of an aggregated dataset: The case of wildfires in Portugal

Cited by 50 publications

References 56 publications

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: Spatial distribution characterization

Negligent and intentional fires in Portugal: Spatial distribution characterization

Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts

Global assessment of land cover changes and rural-urban interface in Portugal

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