Space-time characterization of drought events and their impacts on vegetation in Central Asia

Guo, Hao; Bao, Anming; Ndayisaba, Felix; Liu, Tie; Jiapaer, Guli; El-Tantawi, Attia M.; Maeyer, Philippe De

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.081

Cited by 126 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…This study focuses on the changes in precipitation during the 21st century. As a drought-prone region, the changes in drought conditions over Central Asia are also widely concerned (Li et al 2017, Guo et al 2018. Based on the Surface Wetness Index (SWI, the ratio of annual mean precipitation and evaporation), drought may become even severer in the coming century though increasing precipitation is projected.…”

Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Jiang

Zhou

Chen

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

160

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A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5 -8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA.

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Section: Summary and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Jiang

Zhou

Chen

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

160

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“…Drought is a long-term natural phenomenon wherein the water condition is less sustainable than the local normal situation. With global warming and the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean intensifying the destabilization of the atmospheric structure, the ocean monsoons are unable to land and form rainfall, thus leading to frequent drought disasters around the world in recent years, including North America [1], Australia [2], East Africa [3], and Asia [4]. Drought disasters lead to a lack of drinking water for people and animals, and the destruction of crops and land.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Hou

Wang

Fan

et al. 2020

Water

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The Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important grain and industrial production area in eastern China with frequent droughts. Under the background of current climate change, the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of the basin may be changed, which may lead to the changes of regional drought characteristics. It should be paid more attention on the drought research under climate change and the difference between different drought indices. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) as an important tool for climate change research has been used in the study and the study chosen three global circulation models (GCMs)—such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had), and MIROC5 (MIR)—to gather an ensemble model (EnM) for providing the future climate information. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Humidity Index (HI) were used to evaluate and compare the drought situations in the past and the future periods with two representative concentration path scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). Some sequence statistics methods, such as Mann–Kendall test and run theory, were carried out to analyze the trend and the changes of extreme drought frequency and characteristics values. The research showed that the simulation accuracy of the EnM would better. SPI and HI take different factors into count and thus lead to differences in describing drought trend, extreme drought frequency, and characteristic values, such as drought severity, drought duration, mean drought severity, and max drought intensity. The research showed that both SPI and HI showed the same wetting or drying trend in the same timescales (except winter) as in the historical data. However, the future annual and seasonal drought trend reflected by SPI shows a wetting trend while HI shows a drying trend. Both in the past and the future, extreme drought frequency and characteristic values reflected by HI are higher than SPI. The drought trend is greater, and the extreme drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under RCP8.5. Low precipitation and high potential evapotranspiration (PET), especially the PET caused by temperature rise, are the main influencing factors of drought in the future. Therefore, the influence of the PET should not be ignored in drought analysis and we should strengthen the comparative study of different drought indices in future drought analysis under climate change.

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“…Since drought emerges in space and time, many studies focused on the temporal (one-dimensional) evolution of droughts in a specific area (e.g., [5]), and the spatial (two-dimensional) structure of drought patterns in a fixed time scale (e.g., [6,7]). In recent years, three-dimensional approaches have been developed in order to represent true drought evolutions of the spatiotemporal coherence [8][9][10][11], such as the severity-area-duration (SAD) relationship that jointly represents drought characterization in space and time in higher dimensions [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Droughts and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over Guizhou Province in Southwest China

Xiao

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2019

Water

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The spatiotemporal evolution of meteorological droughts in Guizhou Province, Southwest China is analyzed based on a new set of the Standardized Precipitation Index series that mainly includes drought events that occurred from 1961 to 2004 at 81 meteorological stations. The cluster analysis shows that the study region can be classified into six homogeneous sub-regions where the drought characteristics and their temporal evolutions are quite different. The trend test and periodicity analysis indicate that Guizhou Province experienced a drier trend, which was most significant in the western parts of the region. It was found that the intensified drought severity was not always coincident with the drier trend but relied on the occurrence of extreme drought events. The trends of drier climate and drought severity were highly coincident with the temporal evolution of the drought periodicities, which were shortened from 1–4 years to less than one year. The shortened drought periodicity was found to be associated principally with a shift of the large-scale dominant climate indices from the North Atlantic Oscillation to the Indian Ocean Dipole after the late 1970s, and variations of the extreme drought events were mostly related to NINO34 in the study region.

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Space-time characterization of drought events and their impacts on vegetation in Central Asia

Cited by 126 publications

References 78 publications

Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Droughts and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Indices over Guizhou Province in Southwest China

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