Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract

This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

Atmospheric Pollution Exposure Increases Disease Activity of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

“…In Mato Grosso, burning of sugarcane forests and crops is the major source of air pollution, and these emissions have been responsible for causing diseases in people of different age groups [33,34].…”

Fatores de risco para mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares associados à alta exposição ao tráfego veicular

“…In the same region of the study, some authors observed an increase of morbidity and mortality during the same period. They approached that such advance is associated with increase of air pollutants related to the prevalence of biomass burns in the region 16,[29][30][31] . Urban waste burning, which is a common practice in Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, can also contribute to the concentration increase of air pollutants, as well as to their toxicity, because they present more proximity of the individual and have a great mixture of toxic components (plastic, fuel, electronic device) 32 .…”

“…A purely spatial analysis was performed to identify high-risk clusters for CD mortality associated with high vehicular exposure, in which Bernoulli's probability model was used under a round ray of 1,713.86 meters 16 and considering a cluster of up to 50% of the risk population. The parameters used in this exam were: number of deaths per census tract (adjusted by gender, age, and income ratio) and plane coordinates (UTM Projection, South Fuse 21, metric units) of the centroids from the census tracts.…”

Fatores socioeconômicos aumentam os efeitos nocivos da poluição atmosférica e da temperatura na mortalidade

“…Urban space is effected by social and income inequality, increasing the tendency of shantytowns , violence and social exclusion and making access to health difficult 9 . Despite high levels of municipal human development, 20% of the people are vulnerable to poverty and 6% of the population have precarious housing conditions 10 .…”