Space Strategic Stability: Assessing U.S. Concepts and Approaches

Abstract

Improvements in Russian and Chinese counterspace capabilities could endanger the space-based capabilities the United States relies on for a broad array of military and economic functions. The multiplication of U.S. and adversary capabilities could lead to unstable competition in space, raising the risk of rapid, and perhaps unintended, military escalation. This report documents and examines the conventional wisdom regarding escalation in the domain to offer recommendations for how the U.S. Space Force (USSF) and other stakeholders can better prepare to deter and manage escalation. We investigate the implications of six propositions related to stability: (1) the incentives to employ offensive capabilities early in a conflict; (2) the benefits of leveraging foreign and commercial systems;(3) the utility of communications channels for crisis prevention and de-escalation; (4) the feasibility of promoting shared norms of responsible behavior; (5) the strategic benefits of selective revelation; and (6) the use of reversible capabilities to manage escalation. We conclude with a discussion of preliminary insights and recommendations for U.S. space policy, planning, and further research. The other publicly available forthcoming volumes in the series are as follows: